国中企业财务风险预警控制存
问题策分析—海升叶公司例
Charitou（2000）BS期权定价模型中相关变量构建财务危机判模型选取19831994年间美国139家企业作研究样进行较分析研究结果表明债务期面值企业价值变化标准差等期权变量企业财务风险预警中起重作
Matthieu ( 2012）变量Logistic模型基础二元离散选择方法划分种预警区域选择32家已面财务风险企业作研究样创新构建变量Logistic预警模型研究结果显示变量Logistic预警模型中预警区域数情景风险结果进行效预警
Edward ( 2011)选取中国境164家市公司作研究象线性元分析法工网络技术相结合研究表明市公司中27家企业濒破产50家企业财务风险应该受重视89家企业营状况良
伦艳（2018）林业企业财务风险预警系统理问题策中提出：林业企业财务风险预警系统设计程中相关工作员通制定适应决策类型财务风险预警系财务风险预警系统参数选择方法等方面进行设计提高财务风险预警系统身功基础促进林业企业济快速发展
姚江红（2017）新常态中企业财务风险评价预警分析中提出：中企业发起运营理程中扮演着重财务理角色粗放式职理模式导致企业缺乏科学效财务理机制模式中企业理者应该考虑引进先进理理念理模式重财务理岗位应分工明确职责充分发挥较优势相互牵制相互监督改变原传统理模式带财务风险提高企业防范规避财务风险力效降低财务风险企业带损失性济新常态中企业发展提出更机遇挑战财务风险防范控制中企业发展起着关重作目提高中企业市场竞争力便中企业社会创造更财富价值
鲁明（2017）浅析中企业财务理存问题策中提出：财务理贯穿企业营整环节尤先天发展足中企业说意义重全球化国际背景日渐深入市场化改革国形势中企业发展面威胁更应该重视财务理作企业应结合时代背景积极合理利国家政策认真分析企业身问题汲取验教训建立完善财务理体系规范会计秩序加强财务控制风险防范时企业应理程中财务理模式方法进行探索创新选择适合企业发展财务理体系断提高身实力众企业中脱颖出实现良发展
刘莹(2016)利模糊综合评价构建关公司运营状况财务风险预警系统研究10家样公司运营情况研究证明该方法综合分析评价公司财务风险发生性企业筹资投资营决策提供较准确
杨保安(2017)选择35样作初始样运工神网络相关理建立预警模型国首位工神网络理引入财务风险预警领域学者研究结果表明该模型样公司进行预警准确度95
席红梅李静璇（2017）浅析高校财务理部控制制度存问题策中提出：着国教育事业快速发展教育质量办学规模幅度提高高校财务面问题日益增财务风险越越高校财务理提出更高求健全部控制制度加强财务理监督规范财务行提高资金效益
许康娇（2017）浅析中企业财务理风险控制问题策中提出：中企业够稳定持续发展扩展企业市场占率必须企业财务风险做出科学全面分析采取合适理手段避免较财务风险发生提高企业营理水促进企业长期持续发展
综述目前国外学者中企业采取预警机制存问题抒见研究视觉然宽泛终帮助企业降低企业财务风险增加集团济效益目文角度分析海升叶公司采取预警机制中存问题提出解决财务风险策降低企业财务风险提高财务风险预警结果准确性
国中企业财务风险预警控制存问题策分析
——海升叶公司例
摘
现国许中企业国济发展阶常见状况中企业国济发展中拥着越越关键位着国济持续长久发展中企业国外竞争环境越越繁杂变时处理问题越越边缘化中企业应特注重第三年中企业挺第三年百分五十中企业没挺第三年样中企业抗风险系统强化样残酷市场环境中生存许中企业理者责义务
财务风险形成程综合性强程企业营程中方面密切相关时企业职部门部联系财务风险形成非夕事积忧成疾长期程越早发现越快控制公司财务安全越特定运营流程中公司财务风险早期预警早期控制进行审查问题更深入更具体解助降低企业财务风险提高财务风险预警结果准确性
文开始阐述财务风险公司财务风险预警概念特点财务风险预警企业运营程中战略性意义接着海升叶公司财务风险控制现状进行剖析发现相关问题文提出关中企业财务风险控制策建议
关键词：财务风险风险预警风险控制
ABSTRACT
Today there are a large number of SMEs This is a widespread phenomenon during this Chinese economic development stage SMEs are also promoting Chinese economic development and have played an increasingly important role With the progressive development of Chinese economy SMEs face increased competition at home and abroad is also facing a growing number of questions In general the third year is a critical period for SMEs but also the peak period of bankruptcy there are nearly 50 of SMEs would not be able through this gateway How to improve SMEs ability to resist risks how to adapt to rapidly changing market environment is difficult problem that a lot of SME managers have to face to
Financial risk is related to all the stage of operation and all aspects of the process and various departments in the enterprises It is the role of an integrated process Moreover the financial risk does not take shape overnight but from quantitative to qualitative change in a longterm process The earlier found that the sooner control the safer operation of the enterprise’s finance Research on the financial risk early warning and control of enterprises in the specific operation process of the problems encountered a deeper and more specific understanding of the problem It also helps to reduce the financial risk of the enterprise improve the accuracy of financial risk warning results
First of all this paper expounds the concept of enterprise financial risk early warning and financial risk and the significance of financial risk control in the process of enterprise operationThen this paper analyzes the current situation of financial risk control in Shanghai Shengye energy saving and environmental protection science and technology coLtd To discover the problemFinally this paper recommends SMEs some countermeasures for financial risk control This part provides a means to control the financial risks for SMEs
Key words Financial risk Risk early warning Risk control
目 录
1前言 1
2财务风险预警基概述 1
21财务风险概念特征 2
22企业财务风险预警控制意义 3
3海升叶节环保公司财务风险控制现状分析 3
31公司财务风险预警状态分析 4
32公司财务风险控制状态分析 4
4海升叶节环保公司财务风险预警控制存问题 4
41缺乏财务风险控制意识 5
42金融业赖程度高 5
43缺乏效评估机制 5
5海升叶节环保公司财务风险控制策建议 6
51加强企业财务风险控制意识 6
52构建财务风险预警应急系统 7
53加强企业部控制 7
6结 8
参考文献 9
致谢 11
1前 言
现代市场济条件中企业市场济组成部分时量中企业表现出市场济活力西方国家许济学者理学者纷纷投入中企业研究中国中企业会第三年破产倒闭两三年市场竞争新中企业会倒闭半企业公司盈利力持续降直亏损资金短缺偿债力降太法清偿期债务导致破产
风险伴着公司决定财务发生损失简单理解风险生活中风险影形风险方面进行分类新风险定义确定预期结果定义较广泛坏两方面面影响影响预示着机会负面影响称危机数明白风险通常理解狭义定义风险等危机
预警军方发源工商理环境监测方面频繁出现企业财务理非常关注企业破产方面相关素中财务风险预测重中重着全球化加速引进完善社会义市场济体制国外中企业竞争越越白热化企业外环境变复杂变提高抵御风险力中企业理者需解决问题义务
2财务风险预警基概述
21财务风险概念特征
财务风险分狭义广义财务风险狭义财务风险企业负债需承担风险广义指公司盈利种素导致确定市场风险业务风险融资风险首先财务决策未商业活动计划然未商业活动确定次未财务利润会计利润会计利润实际发生济活动基础未财务利润未营活动基础获收入减发生成费
财务理应越越广泛界定财务风险必须抓住财务点特点财务风险具特点：全程伴性伴企业价值运动全程二系统性部分组成互动机体根两点文财务风险作出完整定义：公司财务风险指定客观情况定时间企业营程中种确定确定素影响导致企业资金流动效率持续降低受干扰公司运营效率偏离预期目标终会导致公司目标发展利润利图结果
财务风险点特征：
第灭性市场济环境企业受财务风险消灭生产营中环节市场活动融资必须市场基础生产销售必须根市场变化进行调整第二综合全面性企业财务非常全面概念公司运营方面着密切联系财务风险涉公司资流动阶段业务理部门公司风险综合表现说金融风险全面综合第三复杂性确定性财务风险发生程终影响复杂变确定理者难掌握财务风险强弱企业规模影响难预测财务风险企业影响终结果第四预测性然财务风险复杂变确定财务风险发生时候会留蛛丝马迹规律循第五损益突出性般情况公司财务活动结果计划预期结果总存定偏差种差异较时公司会认正常损益关注旦财务风险发生会公司带较巨损失
22企业财务风险预警控制意义
着中国市场济全球化进程断发展突出国际金融危机外部济环境跳跃式变化市场济条件日益激烈竞争时期中企业外部环境确定性种确定性认识全面中企业面更金融风险投资者财务风险预测中解中企业营成果指标中企业板市中企业倒闭清算时股东申请资产权利排公司资力偿时算公司没倒闭清算股东规避风险早撤资旦企业监机构外宣布公司陷入财务困境公司股价会幅跌投资者遭受损失投资损失果投资者够获关风险预警信息事先知道市中企业否存破产提高警惕性降低撤出公司投资化避免损失
公司财务风险控制评估旨通公司进行风险分析风险分析提高风险意识公司部风险控制中问题缺陷第时间发现达加强企业部控制制度建立良决策机制目
样做企业财务风险预警控制企业面跳现实问题现绝数企业理者讨热门话题问题企业带影响深度深浅影响范围狭窄单企业广泛社会济发展影响着企业未发展关着企业生死存亡未影响甚改变整社会济发展企业财务风险预警控制存问题策分析特针现着国特色市场济发展国家政策引领带创业热潮越发壮具民族特色中企业军研究分析具深远意义加量变必然带质变亘古变真理问题关注失种谨慎中庸表现
3海升叶公司财务风险控制现状分析
31公司财务风险预警状态分析
海升叶节环保科技限公司总部位海市浦东新区秀浦路3500号工厂位青浦区北青路3689号家致力改善建筑环境改善居住环境质量集团公司注重节环保科技该公司整合研发相关产品生产代理销售项目设计工程安装
公司财务状况分成六种类型表 31 示
表 31 损益分析预警模式表
损益表
a
b
c
d
e
f
营收益
亏损
亏损
盈利
盈利
盈利
盈利
营业利润
亏损
亏损
亏损
亏损
盈利
盈利
期间收益
亏损
盈利
亏损
盈利
亏损
盈利
说明
公司处快破产状态
继续导致公司导致破产
根亏损情况分析
正常
中 营业费营成+理费+税金附加
营收益营业收入－营业费
期间收益营业利润＋营业外收支净额
营业利润营收益－财务费
中企业营活动中承担财务风险前必财务出现定征兆具体体现方面构建财务风险预警体系前应首先总结出种财务风险征兆作该体系核心指标便实现财务风险效监测相应财务征兆首先体现现金流量足企业现金出入均衡出入提示着财务潜风险次市场环境正常企业销售额出现非正常降营应收账款企业现金分幅升降样预示着企业营中财务出现非正常表现财务状况分析财务例出现异常情况
表 32公司财务重指标变动
2014年行业均水值
2015年行业均水值
2016年行业均水值
公司2014
公司2015
公司2016
资产负债率
076
073
084
065
071
064
息资率
056
072
066
048
050
040
形净值债务率
186
107
154
205
265
189
权益数
417
370
625
286
345
278
利息保障倍数
1186
973
1025
772
1011
960
谓资产负债率定义公司资产欠债务总额相值息资率指企业商业信外息负债占求直接回报资金重形净值债务率欠债款总额形资产净值值三指标反映债权提供资金企业资金中受保障程度尤两种率更加谨慎稳健财务率息资率中息负债指企业金融市场取负债融资该率体现企业利类金融负债力风险形净值债务率物质保障基础基础分析企业偿债安全性种分析长期偿债力分析更说服力表32中数出14年16年三年息资率资产负债率行业均值海升叶节环保限公司例整节环保行业三年处高度负债营情况企业长期偿债力然相较弱两指标变化情况年降趋势说明企业已意识该问题逐渐调整资产负债结构降低率提高长期偿债力表中数反映出企业形净值债务率居高高出行业均值原资金回收率高企业营更外部资金支持行业总环境低迷法带动企业发展
32公司财务风险控制状态分析
年政策体系明显倾型企业针国市公司尤突出中企业确没明确支持政策首先济宏观政策没特支持定规章制度中企业规定次财政税收土利优惠政策角度倾国企业等型企业中企业税收压力意性非常明显方政府中企业作成象增加中企业营成加重企业负担
海盛业节环保公司言财务理制度适应纷然杂陈宏观环境种财务理相关限制影响财务风险素阶段数中企业建立财务理制度部门组织工作力差财务理制度规章制度缺陷致财务理制度外部氛围相致外部环境调整合理预测时缺乏相应策造成金融风险十分突出
债务融资仅产生积极影响会产生负面影响仅创造财务杠杆创造融资风险公司合理负债创造财务杠杆收益合理负债会导致公司付款水显着降导致付款危机
企业例企业基考虑融资成融资扩公司财务增加企业融资风险企业款部分高利率固定资产抵押贷款余额私贷款员工筹款高利率加重企业济负担导致偿债力折扣
财务预算理种较先进控制方法公司部理中产生非常重影响公司财务预算理相简单预算理出现延误权力责清楚财务预算制度效显示生产营环节出现困难效履行权力责
4海升叶公司财务风险预警控制存问题
41缺乏财务风险控制意识
海升叶节环保公司没建立风险概念没开展科学效完整风险控制活动重点包括：风险控制工作瞬间致没持续发展次公司没定期审查风险降低公司环境转型致性控制抵御风险某情况公司关注短期利益没关注公司未某决策影响公司影响非常公司风险控制体系够健全公司金融工作员具备力财务控制分公司理业务理控制公司台中80％非金融类专业认分支机构科学运作会计通常兼职会计公司财务状况进行粗略财务控制进行基会计活动迅速提供决策
公司例生产资源力资源缺乏导致公司理资源相短缺相应理机制建设简单专业性强进导致部控体系够完善公司没业务目标理目标没公司营预算企业理者理理念较陈旧完全理解现代理理念理方法财务理够重视制度环境改变产业政策利率资市场发展程度通货膨胀等等快速准确解做出相应反应
公司常区分会计财务职未财务工作中创建精确风险度量差异分析研究理部门致会计组织提供财务评估研究职责会计组织没完善会计审查机制会计信息完整规范财务风险计量审计理财务会计数完备法衡量财务风险审查防范
42金融业赖程度高
中企业融资严重赖银行原述方面：
第中企业直接融资渠道畅直接融资分股权融资公司债券融资型企业导证券市场股权融资中企业深圳证券交易中企业板块创业板块中效融资发展成熟中国股市许进入投机赚钱少长期投资达支持中企业发展效果种通炒股赚钱投资策略方法关注股价涨跌少关注中企业价值发展前景具真正发展潜力中企业没足够支持公司债券融资开发融资方式融资方式相融资金相较少
第二间接融资相直接融资规模优势现中国重投资方式银行言喻公司融资中部分特中企业融资应该银行够股票债券市场融资金基型企业中企业证券市场难融资金算融部分中企业应间接融资市场资金融通战场先找准中企业资金源选择较正确融资方式算真正症药中企业融资难题较恰解决
第三中股份制银行断发展中银行整金融体系中具活力中企业金融服务中银行扮演国商业银行竞争者前垄断者角色成中国银行业金融创新载体1986年前中国国际结算业务基中国银行独家业务市场份额95％着中国金融体制改革济发展深入国际结算服务垄断形势开始发生变化1980年代成立全国中型股份制商业银行针国际交易结算业务业务开始具风险低成低利润高特点
43缺乏效评估机制
中企业信风险状况受前济形势未段时间整体济表现影响中国宏观调控政策济表现通胀指数评估中企业信风险水假设定区域段时间保持稳定增长国生产总值说明该区整体济期间表现优秀资金流动较畅商业银行贷款时偿容易发生信违约情况中企业规模相较般情况吸纳少量企业投资理层缺乏迅速反应效决策机制容易造成部控制稳定导致营业绩意中企业缺乏良部信风险控制技术财务信息缺乏透明度导致量信缺失事件
中企业组织结构营方式信贷融资特点中国商业银行现采信评估方法中企业融资难利完成偿付力稳定性风险控性等供应链金融模式特点解决银行中企业抵押中企业中企业间信息称问题获取信贷款提供设施时供应链金融模式独信市场法律道德风险容忽视部控制制度企业理者制定包括职理资产理等方面良部控制够促进企业发展反想知部控制顾名思义企业部调控公司高层控制检查执行程度建制度否合理较少部权力某串通部控制形虚设样重应收账款回收理方面公司开展赊销业务然表面够企业带效益增加程中会造成公司应收账款机会成造成应收账款回收风险公司带坏账损失保险类行业中营销通销商种模式搜狐公司说必须重视销商选择企业应该发展角度出发制定科学性信政策销商规定准确赊销期限信折扣政策销商进行信评价选择信度良销商降低公司应收账款回收风险外企业应该采取积极措施企业够效回收货款降低企业坏账风险
5海升叶公司财务风险控制策建议
51加强企业财务风险控制意识
进行财务分析程中应该真实完整财务数基础进行风险预警模型中数财务会计数中提取财会数真实性决定预警效果坏中企业应该注重财务员业务水提高问题建立合理科学评估标准奖惩机制充分全面调动财务员积极动性时准确预见风险快速回避化解危机根保证公司应注重公司员工素质培养重点培养公司高级理员财务员提高员工技专业水加强培养风险理意识适应现代化需企业发展财务理
外财务员身综合力财务风险预防起关重作提升整体财务表现势必行会计工作技术求突出具专业性应该具备时专业处理遇困难力财会员风险观念够明确危机意识够强会阻碍中企业发展助途径进行定改善：抓紧财会员职培训保证力处理新财务问题二力推动财务工作者进行学历学职称考试保证公司运营触犯法律造成必损失三开展财会继续教育落实金融工作者继续教育推动公司部结构建设健康方拢
52构建财务预警应急系统
确保中企业财务风险预警应急系统效建设相应构建流程进行序构建时应进行方面研究组织机构风险防控方法进行确定完善首先应建立健全财务风险预警组织机构通层级机构效配合确保预警应急体系效构建时保证充分发挥效组织应包括基数获取风险分析领导力需完成财务预警工作基础数收集渗透公司部门次风险分析层基础信息进行效分析明确风险级制定报效应防控方案领导层基风险预警分析结果做出相应防控决策预警组织进行考核监
中企业确立风险预警体系核心指标时应建立起科学风险预警评价指标体系确保评价指标符合企业实际情况够限度实现财务风险准确预估判断进行评价指标选取时应首先遵循科学性
53加强企业部控制
公司生产营活动必然会面着定风险方面公司处外部环境时刻发生着变化宏观环境国家政策等条件影响公司时会出现发展中阻碍方面公司部果理意识者方式存定问题会公司营带风险搜狐公司想长久稳定发展发展程中规避财务风险断更措施增强风险意识制度
然建立完善风险理部门公司生产营程进行控企业财务部门指定资深财务员负责企业财务风险问题断企业中财务理制度进行改革完善公司营理程中制度进行落实次断加强公司员工风险意识形成良工作作全公司角度加强财务风险理公司发展程中加强外部环境变化情况关注时根变化公司财务策略进行调整避免公司环境变化产生财务风险
创建改善企业财务系统公司避免财务风险基础公司财务制度建立健全情况准确反映公司信息业务信息效利财务信息理信息确保项业务活动正确决策执行
企业想全方位防范风险必须保证建立风险理机构全面死角全面企业风险理组织结构应该三部门组成：财务风险理领导部门直接领导财务风险理工作进行财务风险理外部监督部门财务风险理企业部监督部门两部门起监督纠正作确保财务理工作正确健康运行图53较全面完善财务风险理组织机构构成图
领导部门
外部监督部门
部三级风险防御机构
公司审计
第三级
财务风险理委员会
第二级
财务部负责
第级
财务员
财务员
财务员
图53财务风险组织架构图
财务风险理领导部门：职责建立完善公司综合财务风险理体系保证财务风险理工作够利进行
财务风险理部部门：通防务理系统三阶段完成公司业务活动中种财务风险控制第阶段财务部门财务员财务负责通日常财务活动识发现财务风险时作出控制通报部门财务风险理委员会等等系列连锁反应第二阶段公司财务风险理委员会日常业务活动中识风险控制风险部门反馈信息进行时处理传递第三阶段公司部审计部门公司财务运营方面进行审计通审计信息反馈传递参风险识控制中
外部监督机构：包括审计机构税务机关会计机构金融机构等机构公司营情况财务状况进行审计提出审计意见认证意见公司根意见解身情况做出相应财务风险理操作
6结
着世界济体化全球济市场化中企业规模断扩张中企业数量断增中企业面着越越金融风险种财务非财务风险纷纷显现越越纷繁复杂研究中企业金融风险特点做充分全面解中企业识中企业金融风险加效控制抵御中企业健康发展重保证中企业众行中脱颖出重前提样海升叶公司面更加激烈市场竞争环境复杂金融风险残酷考验公司财务理系统刚刚起步建设阶段公司应采取种措施识抵御财务风险控制财务风险确保公司财务理系统良成长环境企业发展坚实基础保证融资活动商业活动够正常高效运作文通中企业财务风险分析出结：
目前中国中企业金融风险重视预防意识较差特需分析研究金融风险
财务风险客观存整公司金融体系中确定公司盈利亏损运营条件否重方面起着决定性作彻底消风险影响现实种客观存决定完全理解避免全额投资筹款资产理收入分配
发展角度财务风险控制断变化断发展程重运战略思维实际操作建立风险控制体系继续企业中运作会更新改进系统
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企业财务风险预警控制
摘：财务风险企业面财政义务种风险该公司金融资产相关债务量函数某时候公司法支付需金利息公司债务例增加性提高金融风险早期预警控制效提供安全稳定金融环境文认通分析财务状况编制现金流量预算建立财务风险指标体系计算模型早期预报财务风险方面通建立效资结构选择正确筹资方法保持资产高流动性效控制金融风险
关键词：指数条款—金融风险预警指标效控制
总
什财务风险
财务风险财务成果财务状况风险财务风险狭义广义分狭义财务风险企业负债引起具体说指企业入资金增加丧失偿债力企业利润（股东收益）变性广义财务风险指企业财务系统中客观存种难法预料控制素作企业实现财务收益预期财务收益发生背离蒙受损失机会
文中财务风险指结构合理恰公司会失偿付力导致企业预期收益降投资者甚破产融资
财务风险产生呢数金融性质交易包括销售采购投资贷款种业务活动产生财务风险出现合法交易中新项目中兼收购中债务融资中源部分成中通理活动利益相关者竞争者外国政府天气出现社会负债营企业必营策略通债务理企业弥补股票基金足利贷款基金获利生产理需资金般发行股票（股权基金）债务中债务利息负担（包括银行贷款发行公司债券贸易信贷）确定果公司债务占高例者公司资金总额利润率低利率会股东分配利润减少股利减少股票投资风险增加例公司资金利润率10相应公司贷款发行债券面利率8股东利息收入高10果企业资金利润率降低8该公司求支付8贷款债券利息普通股股东收益低资金利润率事实财务杠杆作导致公司融资双刃剑通筹资产生利息率高利率股东带收入增长效应否成收入减少财务风险
公司生产理程中通常会遇种样财务风险财务风险存企业实现预期财务收益非常困难财务风险甚会威胁公司正常运行生产目前企业财务风险没理重视预测潜财务风险发现企业财务风险样效控制？
二财务风险早期预警指标体系
财务风险识财务风险理容利风险刚出现出现前予识准确握种财务风险信号产生原财务风险预警财务风险实际发生前捕捉监视种细微迹象变动利预防采取适策争取时间集团建立完善信息理系统旦发现财务风险信号准确时传员防事态逐步扩
效防范财务风险企业应采取措施建立预警指标体系进行财务分析
21分析收入水时时发现危险信号
公司收益包括3层次：营业收入固定收入周期性收入营业收入剩余总净收入中扣营成理成销售成税附加费固定收入基收入扣财务费收入周期性收入固定收入净非营业收入支出总额公司开始承担营收入损失时候开始该公司破产果周期性收入黑色非核心业务收入事产生证券房产销售果营收入黑色正常收入红色危机信号已出现企业资结构合理款规模利息负担沉重时候应该采取早期预警措施避免财务危机[1]8182
22 建立现金流量预算财务状况分析体系
企业现金流量预算编制财务理重组成部分准确现金流量预算帮助财务理分析财务状况提供风险预警信号作公司理财象现金现金流短期企业否够生存完全取决否黑色取决否足够支付种费现金该措施实施前提公司够获利润普通稳定业务应收账款应付账款存货保持稳定营活动产生现金流量净额应利润（否会产生危险信号）[2]125126准确制定现金流量预算企业应该总结项具体目标指明未预期收入现金流量量化方式考虑财务状况投资计划十天月季度年期间建立滚动现金流量预算
23建立风险分析指标体系时监控财务风险
列指标财务理常分析财务风险指标
1盈利力指标
长远果公司想远离财务危机必须具备良盈利力样外部融资力债务清算力会更强指标包括：
总资产净现值率（营活动产生现金流量+利息中获股利现金+现金支付利息+现金交纳税 均资产总额
净现值率营活动产生现金流量 销售收入净额
股东利益盈利力净利润 均股东权益
2偿付力
基企业风险债务引起企业营资金会操作风险财务风险衡量股权交易金融风险确定资产负债率需较股票交易盈利力债务资成率果前者者金利息收回时间实现财务杠杆利益时偿债力应该考虑现金数额金融流动性强债务分配额种金融产品否合理资范围评价指标：反映短期偿债力指标：流动率速动率等指标反映长期偿债力指标资产负债率权益数长期负债营运资金率资产收益率资产负债率等
3济效益
济效益高低直接体现企业理程度反映资产理指标包括应收账款周转率生产需求间衡率中：生产需求间衡率产品销售额工业产值
4企业发展潜力
衡量企业发展潜力指标包括销售增长率资保值增值率文采改进功效系数法进行综合评价规范评价指标——满意价值允许值然设计计算指标效率系数利德尔菲法确定指标权数加权算术均加权均均值综合效率系数该方法量化企业财务状况
5财务灵活性
财务灵活性意味着企业必须采取效措施改变现金流现金周转时间提高适应未预料需求机会力涉公司营活动产生净现金流量素反映财务灵活性指标包括：检验企业总资产流动性水营运资金总资产率期债务资赎回率实际净资产长期形资产率应收账款周转率存货周转率等
3财务风险预警模型构建
财务理者够利计算机技术（Excel财务分析软件）正财务风险指标需分析设计财务风险分析模型 建立数基区域（建立数表链接）计算分析区域然估算分析区域中单元中分析指标间创建公式数连接关系动计算出指标值指标值行业标准值参考值进行较继时间获预警数例表中值建立解析公式动生成短期偿债力率长期偿债力率公式中数连接期会计报表期会计报表数更新时模型中需计算分析值动生成帮助金融高时分析期财务风险状况金融风险分析模型样设计分析整合起
四加强企业财务预算理(集团公司例)
1建立财务预算理组织机构
集团公司法定代表集团财务预算理工作负总责成立关职部门组成财务预算理委员会拟订财务预算目标政策制定财务预算理具体措施办法审议衡财务预算方案组织达财务预算协调解决财务预算编制执行中问题组织审计考核财务预算执行情况督促企业完成财务预算目标
2规范财务预算编制程序方法
集团公司整体发展战略结合分级编制逐级汇总程序决策基础提出企业集团财务预算目标预算执行部门企业财务预算委员会达财务预算目标政策结合身特点预测执行条件提出详细部门财务预算方案财务预算委员会应进行充分协调发现问题提出初步调整意见反馈关预算执行部门予修正财务预算委员会逐级达预算执行部门执行
3做预算事前控制事中控制事控制
预算执行部门定期报告财务预算执行情况新情况新问题出现偏差较重项目特注重查找原提出改进营理措施建议
4充分利实时信息系统进行财务监控
部财务监控机制防范化解财务风险效措施部监控包括会计控制理控制两类集团财务监控工作建立项财务预算基础保证子公司资结构良财务运作符合企业集团整体利益更防范控制财务风险促进企业集团持续性发展般讲子公司派驻财务总监负责监督子公司财务行通董事会监事会子公司进行监控子公司监控结果通考核相关指标进行现金率流动率良资产率资产损失率净资产收益率等
企业集团充分运实时财务信息踪监督控制资金流消效资金占提高资金效率确保集团财务目标实现
5财务风险控制
果企业财务风险控制企业发展程中起积极作降低财务风险利企业创造相安全稳定运行环境建立财务风险指标体系企业应时采取措施检测企业情况财务风险企业应采取措施控制发现财务危险信号方面控制财务风险
1高风险意识味追求高利润考虑果肆意筹集资金增加财务负担利润金额衡量公司力唯标准度债务仅企业背负沉重利息负担旦企业生产程中断受阻现金流发生困难公司准时偿债务时企业面声誉受损风险需承担赔偿责终会导致破产公司承担危企业生存风险必须树立强风险控制意识
2建立利资结构公司应考虑风险容忍限度然需求选择力资结构低成风险获投资回报寻求风险收益间佳匹配方案
3选择合适融资方式综合考虑资金成财务风险种影响素基础企业应选择面融资序控制财务风险财务风险减程度首先融资应该部积累开始种方式难度风险企业保留更贷款力第二果公司外部筹集资金第选择应该发行股票选择应银行贷款降低偿金偿低限度债务财政压力
4采取适款策略然时款增加企业利润提高现金总额情况企业环境断变化中应该明确企业款收益回报额果预期收益回报法确定企业没足够理款企业必须知道什时候款什时候款样财务风险控制防止盲目贷导致财务损失
5保持资产高流动性资产流动性高企业控制财务风险减少财务负担重保证够资回收期更容易实现资流动性更强企业抵御财务风险力会更强
6保持盈利力果利润满足财务需求企业必须现金余额出售短期金融资产者更债务弥补资金缺口增加企业财务风险
保持盈利增加资减少债务够效控制财务风险
外文原文
On the corporate financial risk early warning and control
窗体底端
Abstract Financial risk that a firm will be unable to meet its financial obligations This risk is primarily a function of the relative amount of debt that the firm uses to finance its assets A higher proportion of debt increases the likelihood that at some point the firm will be unable to make the required interest and principal payments Early warning and controlling financial risks effectively can provide a safe and steady operating environment This paper believe that through analyzing the financial situation preparing the cashflow budget establishing the financial risk index system and computational model to warn early the financial risk On the other hand through establishing effective capital structure selecting correct fundraising methods and keep the assets highly liquid to control the financial risk effectively
Key words Index Terms financial risk early warning index control effectively
1INTRODUCTION
What is financial risk
The financial risk is finance achievement and the risk of financial standingThe financial risk separates the narrow sense and the broad senseThe narrow sense financial risk is fallen into debt the causable by the business enterprise concretely say to mean business enterprise because of lend funds but increment of lose the possibility of the ability of repaying debt and the variability of the business enterprise profits (shareholder income)The broad sense financial risk means the finance system of business enterprise in objective existence of because of various factor function that is hard or can not anticipate and control make business enterprise realization of financial income and expectation financial income occurrence deviate from as a result suffer a losing opportunity or possibility
In this paperfinancial risk refers to that because of the unreasonable structure and inappropriate financing companies may lose solvency which will lead to the declining in expected return and even bankruptcy of investors
How does financial riskFinancial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature including sales and purchases investments and loans and various other business activitiesIt can arise as a result of legal transactions new projects mergers and acquisitions debt financing the energy component of costs or through the activities of management stakeholders competitors foreign governments or weather In today＇s society debt management is a necessary business strategy for corporate Through debt management corporate can make up the shortage of equity fund and earn profit by using loan fund The fund needed in production and management generally come from the issued shares (or other equity funds) and debt In which the interest burden of debt (including bank loans issued corporate bonds and trade credit) is definite If debt takes up a high proportion in the total fund of the company or the company＇s profit rate is lower than the interest rate then the distributable profit of shareholders is reduced the dividend is decreased and the risk of stock investment is increased For example when a company＇s profit rate on fund is 10 and the corresponding interest rate of company＇s loan or the interest rate of issued bond＇ face is 8the interest income of shareholders will be higher than 10 if a company＇s profit rate on fund is lower than 8 the company would be required to pay loans or bonds interest by 8the income of common shareholders will be lower than profit rate on fund In fact the financial leverage resulting from company＇s fund raising is like a doubleedged sword and when the interest rate generated by fund raising is higher than interest rate it will bring growth effect to shareholders＇ income otherwise it is the financial risk of income reduction
Corporate usually encounter a wide variety of financial risks in production and management process Because of the existence of financial risks corporate are very difficult to achieve the initial financial benefits and some of financial risks may even threaten the normal operation and production of corporate At present in some corporate financial risks are not received the attention from the management then how could corporate predict potential finance risks and have an effective control on them after discovering financial risks
2 EARL Y WARNING INDICATOR SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL RISK
The financial risk identifies is manage to the financial risk contents before the disadvantageous risk just appeared or appeared identify with accurate held various financial risk of signal and it creation reason The financial risk early warning wants before the financial risk physically takes place and catches and keeps watch on various small evidence to change with benefit prevention and for adopt an appropriate counterplan to fight for timeThe group wants to build up a perfect information management system once discovering financial risk signal the ability Be accurate to spread into a main personnel in time in order to prevent circumstances of gradually extension
To effectively prevent financial risks corporate should take some measures and establish early warning indicator system for financial risk analysis
21 Analyze the change income levels to timely detect risk signals
Corporate earnings include 3 levels operating income regular income and periodic income Operating income means the remaining net income deducting operating costs management cost sale cost tax and other additional cost from the total income Regular income is the income based on the income deducting finance charges While periodic income is the total of regular income and net nonoperating income and expenditure If a corporate has started to take a loss since the period of operating income this corporate is nearly bankrupt If the periodic income is in the black maybe this income is due to noncore operations or accident such as the sale of securities and real estate If the operating income is in the black while the regular income is in the red then the crisis signal has appearedwhich is because the corporate capital structure is irrational borrowing scale is large and the interest burden is heavy At this time some early warning measures should be taken to avoid the financial crises [1]8182
22 Develop the cash flow budget and analyze financial conditions
The development of corporate cash flow budget is one of the most important parts in financial management Accurate cash flow budget can help financial managers analyze financial conditions and provide risk early warning signal As the object of corporate finance is cash or cash flow so in the short term whether the corporate can survive is not entirely dependent on whether it is in the black but on whether there is sufficient cash for various expenses The premise of the precaution is that corporation should have the profit For common stable business its receivables payables and inventory can hold steady so the net amount of cash flow generated by operating activities should be greater than net profit (otherwise the dangerous signal occurs) [2]125126 To accurately develop cash flow budget corporate should summarize various specific objectives Indicate future expected income cash flow financial condition and invest plan in a quantized way and establish rolling cash flow budget considering ten days month quarter year as the period
23 Establish risk analysis indicator system and timely monitor financial risk
The following indicators are those financial indictors commonly used in the analysis of financial risk by financial managers
1 profitability
In the long run if a corporate wants to stay away from the financial crisis good profitability is a must then its external financing capacity and liquidation of debts capacity will be stronger Indicators include
Net present value rate of total assets (cash flow generated in operating activities+ dividends or cash obtained from interest payments+ cash interest payments+ cash to pay income tax) average total assets
Net present value rate of sale cash flow generated by operating activities net amount of sale income
Profitability of stockholder interest net profit average stockholder interest
2 Solvency
Basically the risk of corporate is caused by debts and a corporate operated by its own capital will have only operating risk not financial risk Therefore weighing the financial risk of trading on the equity to determine the debt ratio should compare the profitability of trading on the equity and the cost rate of debt capital only if the former is greater than the latter the principal and interest can be paid back in time to achieve the financial leverage profit At the same time debtpaying ability also should be taken into account that is the amount of cash or the allocation of strength debt of its financial the liquidity various whether items is capital among reasonable Assessment indicators are as follows indicators reflecting shortterm solvency such as current ratio quick ratio etc indicators reflecting longterm solvency such as assetliability ratio equity multiplier longterm liabilities and working capital ratio asset retained earnings ratio and debt equity ratio etc
3 Economic efficiency
Economic efficiency will directly embody the degree of corporate management Indicators reflecting the asset management include turnover rate of accounting receivable and balance rate between production and demand among which balance rate between production and demandproducts salesindustrial output value
4Corporate developmental potential
Indicators measuring corporate developmental potential include sales growth and capital maintenance and increment ratio This paper applies improved efficiency coefficient method to conduct comprehensive evaluation and standardizes several values for each evaluation indicatorone is satisfied value while the other is nonallowed value Then design and calculate individual efficiency coefficient of each indicators utilize Delphi method to determine each indicator weight and use weighted arithmetic mean or weighted geometric mean to obtain the average that is comprehensive efficiency coefficient This method can be used to quantify the financial situation of corporate
5 Financial flexibility
Financial flexibility means the capacity that corporate has to take effective measures to change the flow and time of cash flow for the purpose of adapting to unanticipated needs and opportunities which is mainly related to the net cash flow generated by companies operating activities Indicators reflecting financial flexibility include working capital used to test the liquidity level of corporate total assets ratio of total assets redemption rate for due debt capital ratio of actual net assets to tangible longterm assets accounts receivable and inventory turnover rate etc
3 THE CONSTRUCTION OF EARLY WARNING MODEL IN FINANCIAL RISK
Financial managers can use computer technology (such as Excel financial analysis software) to integrate the financial risk indicators which need to be analyzed to design a financial risk analysis model Establish fundamental region of data (or establish a data table connection) and calculation analysis region then create formulas and data connectivity relations for each analytical indicators in the cell of calculation analysis area in order to automatically figure out the value of each indicator finally compare the value of each indicator with industrystandard value or reference value consequently get the early warning data at any time For examplethe values in the table are automatically generated after the establishment of analytical formulasshortterm solvency ratio and longterm solvency ratio while the data used in formulas are connected to the accounting statement of each period Thus when the data in the accounting statements of each period are updated the analytical values which need to be calculated in the model are generated automatically to help financial executives analyze the situation of financial risks of each period timely Other financial risk analysis models are also designed like this and analyzed integrated together
4STRENGTHEN THE FINANCIAL BUDGET MANAGEMENT OF ENTERPRISES (TO GROUP COMPANY AS THE EXAMPLE)
1Build up the organization organization of finance budget management
Then the Legal Representative＇s management to the group finance budget work of group company is negative total responsibility establish from relevant the working talent section constitute of finance budget management committee mainly draw up the target policy of finance budget draw up the concrete measure and way of finance budget management review equilibrium finance budget project the organization bottom reaches finance budget and moderates to solve finance budget to draw up with the problem in the performance performance circumstance organize audit and investigate finance budget speed up business enterprise completion finance budget target
2The norm finance budget draws up procedure and method
According to the whole development strategy of the group company according to the procedure of up and down combine the ratings draw up pursue the class gather at decision of foundation up put forward the business enterprise group finance budget targetEach budget carries out the finance budget that the section reaches under the budget committee according to the business enterprise finance target and policy and combines oneself characteristics and the performance condition of estimate and puts forward detailed this section finance budget project the finance budget committee should carry on full moderate put forward the opinion of first step adjustment to the problem of detection and the feedback give to carry out a section to give correction concerning the budget again from finance budget committee pursue class the bottom reach each budget performance section performance
3Work well to control to control with after the event in the budgetary before the event control matter
Each budget carries out a section to periodically report the performance circumstance of finance budget to new circumstance new problem and appear deviation bigger and important item specially pay attention to check to seek reason to put forward the measure suggestion of improvement management managementWell make use of solid the information system carry on finance supervision
4Well make use of solid the information system carry on finance supervision
The establishment sound and internal finance supervises and controls a mechanism is the effective measure that guards against and dissolves financial riskSupervision in the inner part includes accountancy＇s control and management to control 2 typesThe group finance supervises and controls a work establishment on the foundation of each finance budget and promise the capital structure of subsidiary is good finance operation whole benefits according to business enterprise group thus and more better guard against and control financial risk promote business enterprise group of can keep on sex developmentIs general to come to speak can station a finance director general to the subsidiary be responsible for the finance behavior that inspects a subsidiaryCanning also pass board of directors and supervisor will carry on supervision to the subsidiaryTo the supervision result of subsidiary mainly pass to investigate related index sign to carry on like the cash ratio liquidity ratio bad property ratio and property loss ratio and clean property rate of return etc
Finance information for business enterprise group to makes the most of solid to follow direct and control funds to flow to take up by getting rid of invalid funds raise a funds use efficiency ensure the realization of group finance target
5 THE CONTROL ON FINANCIAL RISK
It will play a positive role for corporate development if they have a good control on financial risk Reducing financial risk will be beneficial for corporate to create a relatively secure and stable operating environment After establishing the system of financial risk analysis indicators corporate should take timely monitoring on the situation of financial risk Corporate should take measures to control them after finding risk signals They can control financial risk from the following aspects
1Strong sense of risk Corporate cannot constantly pursue high profits without considering the aftermath and wantonly raise money to increase the financial burden The amount of profit is not the sole criterion for the power of a company Excessive debt can not only let corporate bear a heavy burden of interest and once the process of reproduction is interrupted and obstructed cash flow problems occur and corporate cannot pay back debt on time they will face the risk of loss in reputation responsibility for compensation which will even lead to bankruptcy Corporate cannot run the risk of life threatening and must foster a strong sense to control risk
2 Establish the most favorable capital structure Corporate consider their risk to tolerance acquire to choose the most on advantageous capital structure Use the lowest capital cost and minimum risk maximum return investment seeking the best match between risk and profit
3Choose the right financing way On the basis of comprehensive consideration on funding cost financial risk and other various factors corporate should pick the following order of financing to control financial risk which can reduce their financial risk to minimum degree First financing should start from internal accumulation This way has small difficulty and little risk which can preserve more loaning capacity for corporate Second if corporate raise money from outside their first choice should be stock issue then the last choice goes to bank loans which can reduce the financial pressure of paying back principal and debt to the lowest limits
4 Take the appropriate borrowing strategies Although sometimes borrowing can increase the profit of corporate and improve cash however however no matter under any circumstances we should clear the expected return of borrowing in the changing corporate environment If the expected return cannot be determined corporate does not have the sufficient reason to borrow Therefore corporate must know when to borrow and when not to borrow Only in this way the financial risk can be controlled to prevent the financial failure caused by blind borrowing
5 Maintain the high mobility of assets A high degree of asset liquidity is an important guarantee for corporate to control financial risk and reduce financial burden The capital is achieved more easily liquidity is stronger and the ability to withstand the financial risk is also stronger
6 Maintain profitability If the profit cannot meet the financial needs corporate must rely on cash balances sell shortterm financial assets or borrow more debt to make up funding gaps and increase the corporate financial risk
Therefore maintaining profitability increasing capital and reducing debt can effectively control financial risk
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问题策分析—海升叶公司例
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许康娇（2017）浅析中企业财务理风险控制问题策中提出：中企业够稳定持续发展扩展企业市场占率必须企业财务风险做出科学全面分析采取合适理手段避免较财务风险发生提高企业营理水促进企业长期持续发展
综述目前国外学者中企业采取预警机制存问题抒见研究视觉然宽泛终帮助企业降低企业财务风险增加集团济效益目文角度分析海升叶公司采取预警机制中存问题提出解决财务风险策降低企业财务风险提高财务风险预警结果准确性
国中企业财务风险预警控制存问题策分析
——海升叶公司例
摘
现国许中企业国济发展阶常见状况中企业国济发展中拥着越越关键位着国济持续长久发展中企业国外竞争环境越越繁杂变时处理问题越越边缘化中企业应特注重第三年中企业挺第三年百分五十中企业没挺第三年样中企业抗风险系统强化样残酷市场环境中生存许中企业理者责义务
财务风险形成程综合性强程企业营程中方面密切相关时企业职部门部联系财务风险形成非夕事积忧成疾长期程越早发现越快控制公司财务安全越特定运营流程中公司财务风险早期预警早期控制进行审查问题更深入更具体解助降低企业财务风险提高财务风险预警结果准确性
文开始阐述财务风险公司财务风险预警概念特点财务风险预警企业运营程中战略性意义接着海升叶公司财务风险控制现状进行剖析发现相关问题文提出关中企业财务风险控制策建议
关键词：财务风险风险预警风险控制
ABSTRACT
Today there are a large number of SMEs This is a widespread phenomenon during this Chinese economic development stage SMEs are also promoting Chinese economic development and have played an increasingly important role With the progressive development of Chinese economy SMEs face increased competition at home and abroad is also facing a growing number of questions In general the third year is a critical period for SMEs but also the peak period of bankruptcy there are nearly 50 of SMEs would not be able through this gateway How to improve SMEs ability to resist risks how to adapt to rapidly changing market environment is difficult problem that a lot of SME managers have to face to
Financial risk is related to all the stage of operation and all aspects of the process and various departments in the enterprises It is the role of an integrated process Moreover the financial risk does not take shape overnight but from quantitative to qualitative change in a longterm process The earlier found that the sooner control the safer operation of the enterprise’s finance Research on the financial risk early warning and control of enterprises in the specific operation process of the problems encountered a deeper and more specific understanding of the problem It also helps to reduce the financial risk of the enterprise improve the accuracy of financial risk warning results
First of all this paper expounds the concept of enterprise financial risk early warning and financial risk and the significance of financial risk control in the process of enterprise operationThen this paper analyzes the current situation of financial risk control in Shanghai Shengye energy saving and environmental protection science and technology coLtd To discover the problemFinally this paper recommends SMEs some countermeasures for financial risk control This part provides a means to control the financial risks for SMEs
Key words Financial risk Risk early warning Risk control
目 录
1前言 1
2财务风险预警基概述 1
21财务风险概念特征 2
22企业财务风险预警控制意义 3
3海升叶节环保公司财务风险控制现状分析 3
31公司财务风险预警状态分析 4
32公司财务风险控制状态分析 4
4海升叶节环保公司财务风险预警控制存问题 4
41缺乏财务风险控制意识 5
42金融业赖程度高 5
43缺乏效评估机制 5
5海升叶节环保公司财务风险控制策建议 6
51加强企业财务风险控制意识 6
52构建财务风险预警应急系统 7
53加强企业部控制 7
6结 8
参考文献 9
致谢 11
1前 言
现代市场济条件中企业市场济组成部分时量中企业表现出市场济活力西方国家许济学者理学者纷纷投入中企业研究中国中企业会第三年破产倒闭两三年市场竞争新中企业会倒闭半企业公司盈利力持续降直亏损资金短缺偿债力降太法清偿期债务导致破产
风险伴着公司决定财务发生损失简单理解风险生活中风险影形风险方面进行分类新风险定义确定预期结果定义较广泛坏两方面面影响影响预示着机会负面影响称危机数明白风险通常理解狭义定义风险等危机
预警军方发源工商理环境监测方面频繁出现企业财务理非常关注企业破产方面相关素中财务风险预测重中重着全球化加速引进完善社会义市场济体制国外中企业竞争越越白热化企业外环境变复杂变提高抵御风险力中企业理者需解决问题义务
2财务风险预警基概述
21财务风险概念特征
财务风险分狭义广义财务风险狭义财务风险企业负债需承担风险广义指公司盈利种素导致确定市场风险业务风险融资风险首先财务决策未商业活动计划然未商业活动确定次未财务利润会计利润会计利润实际发生济活动基础未财务利润未营活动基础获收入减发生成费
财务理应越越广泛界定财务风险必须抓住财务点特点财务风险具特点：全程伴性伴企业价值运动全程二系统性部分组成互动机体根两点文财务风险作出完整定义：公司财务风险指定客观情况定时间企业营程中种确定确定素影响导致企业资金流动效率持续降低受干扰公司运营效率偏离预期目标终会导致公司目标发展利润利图结果
财务风险点特征：
第灭性市场济环境企业受财务风险消灭生产营中环节市场活动融资必须市场基础生产销售必须根市场变化进行调整第二综合全面性企业财务非常全面概念公司运营方面着密切联系财务风险涉公司资流动阶段业务理部门公司风险综合表现说金融风险全面综合第三复杂性确定性财务风险发生程终影响复杂变确定理者难掌握财务风险强弱企业规模影响难预测财务风险企业影响终结果第四预测性然财务风险复杂变确定财务风险发生时候会留蛛丝马迹规律循第五损益突出性般情况公司财务活动结果计划预期结果总存定偏差种差异较时公司会认正常损益关注旦财务风险发生会公司带较巨损失
22企业财务风险预警控制意义
着中国市场济全球化进程断发展突出国际金融危机外部济环境跳跃式变化市场济条件日益激烈竞争时期中企业外部环境确定性种确定性认识全面中企业面更金融风险投资者财务风险预测中解中企业营成果指标中企业板市中企业倒闭清算时股东申请资产权利排公司资力偿时算公司没倒闭清算股东规避风险早撤资旦企业监机构外宣布公司陷入财务困境公司股价会幅跌投资者遭受损失投资损失果投资者够获关风险预警信息事先知道市中企业否存破产提高警惕性降低撤出公司投资化避免损失
公司财务风险控制评估旨通公司进行风险分析风险分析提高风险意识公司部风险控制中问题缺陷第时间发现达加强企业部控制制度建立良决策机制目
样做企业财务风险预警控制企业面跳现实问题现绝数企业理者讨热门话题问题企业带影响深度深浅影响范围狭窄单企业广泛社会济发展影响着企业未发展关着企业生死存亡未影响甚改变整社会济发展企业财务风险预警控制存问题策分析特针现着国特色市场济发展国家政策引领带创业热潮越发壮具民族特色中企业军研究分析具深远意义加量变必然带质变亘古变真理问题关注失种谨慎中庸表现
3海升叶公司财务风险控制现状分析
31公司财务风险预警状态分析
海升叶节环保科技限公司总部位海市浦东新区秀浦路3500号工厂位青浦区北青路3689号家致力改善建筑环境改善居住环境质量集团公司注重节环保科技该公司整合研发相关产品生产代理销售项目设计工程安装
公司财务状况分成六种类型表 31 示
表 31 损益分析预警模式表
损益表
a
b
c
d
e
f
营收益
亏损
亏损
盈利
盈利
盈利
盈利
营业利润
亏损
亏损
亏损
亏损
盈利
盈利
期间收益
亏损
盈利
亏损
盈利
亏损
盈利
说明
公司处快破产状态
继续导致公司导致破产
根亏损情况分析
正常
中 营业费营成+理费+税金附加
营收益营业收入－营业费
期间收益营业利润＋营业外收支净额
营业利润营收益－财务费
中企业营活动中承担财务风险前必财务出现定征兆具体体现方面构建财务风险预警体系前应首先总结出种财务风险征兆作该体系核心指标便实现财务风险效监测相应财务征兆首先体现现金流量足企业现金出入均衡出入提示着财务潜风险次市场环境正常企业销售额出现非正常降营应收账款企业现金分幅升降样预示着企业营中财务出现非正常表现财务状况分析财务例出现异常情况
表 32公司财务重指标变动
2014年行业均水值
2015年行业均水值
2016年行业均水值
公司2014
公司2015
公司2016
资产负债率
076
073
084
065
071
064
息资率
056
072
066
048
050
040
形净值债务率
186
107
154
205
265
189
权益数
417
370
625
286
345
278
利息保障倍数
1186
973
1025
772
1011
960
谓资产负债率定义公司资产欠债务总额相值息资率指企业商业信外息负债占求直接回报资金重形净值债务率欠债款总额形资产净值值三指标反映债权提供资金企业资金中受保障程度尤两种率更加谨慎稳健财务率息资率中息负债指企业金融市场取负债融资该率体现企业利类金融负债力风险形净值债务率物质保障基础基础分析企业偿债安全性种分析长期偿债力分析更说服力表32中数出14年16年三年息资率资产负债率行业均值海升叶节环保限公司例整节环保行业三年处高度负债营情况企业长期偿债力然相较弱两指标变化情况年降趋势说明企业已意识该问题逐渐调整资产负债结构降低率提高长期偿债力表中数反映出企业形净值债务率居高高出行业均值原资金回收率高企业营更外部资金支持行业总环境低迷法带动企业发展
32公司财务风险控制状态分析
年政策体系明显倾型企业针国市公司尤突出中企业确没明确支持政策首先济宏观政策没特支持定规章制度中企业规定次财政税收土利优惠政策角度倾国企业等型企业中企业税收压力意性非常明显方政府中企业作成象增加中企业营成加重企业负担
海盛业节环保公司言财务理制度适应纷然杂陈宏观环境种财务理相关限制影响财务风险素阶段数中企业建立财务理制度部门组织工作力差财务理制度规章制度缺陷致财务理制度外部氛围相致外部环境调整合理预测时缺乏相应策造成金融风险十分突出
债务融资仅产生积极影响会产生负面影响仅创造财务杠杆创造融资风险公司合理负债创造财务杠杆收益合理负债会导致公司付款水显着降导致付款危机
企业例企业基考虑融资成融资扩公司财务增加企业融资风险企业款部分高利率固定资产抵押贷款余额私贷款员工筹款高利率加重企业济负担导致偿债力折扣
财务预算理种较先进控制方法公司部理中产生非常重影响公司财务预算理相简单预算理出现延误权力责清楚财务预算制度效显示生产营环节出现困难效履行权力责
4海升叶公司财务风险预警控制存问题
41缺乏财务风险控制意识
海升叶节环保公司没建立风险概念没开展科学效完整风险控制活动重点包括：风险控制工作瞬间致没持续发展次公司没定期审查风险降低公司环境转型致性控制抵御风险某情况公司关注短期利益没关注公司未某决策影响公司影响非常公司风险控制体系够健全公司金融工作员具备力财务控制分公司理业务理控制公司台中80％非金融类专业认分支机构科学运作会计通常兼职会计公司财务状况进行粗略财务控制进行基会计活动迅速提供决策
公司例生产资源力资源缺乏导致公司理资源相短缺相应理机制建设简单专业性强进导致部控体系够完善公司没业务目标理目标没公司营预算企业理者理理念较陈旧完全理解现代理理念理方法财务理够重视制度环境改变产业政策利率资市场发展程度通货膨胀等等快速准确解做出相应反应
公司常区分会计财务职未财务工作中创建精确风险度量差异分析研究理部门致会计组织提供财务评估研究职责会计组织没完善会计审查机制会计信息完整规范财务风险计量审计理财务会计数完备法衡量财务风险审查防范
42金融业赖程度高
中企业融资严重赖银行原述方面：
第中企业直接融资渠道畅直接融资分股权融资公司债券融资型企业导证券市场股权融资中企业深圳证券交易中企业板块创业板块中效融资发展成熟中国股市许进入投机赚钱少长期投资达支持中企业发展效果种通炒股赚钱投资策略方法关注股价涨跌少关注中企业价值发展前景具真正发展潜力中企业没足够支持公司债券融资开发融资方式融资方式相融资金相较少
第二间接融资相直接融资规模优势现中国重投资方式银行言喻公司融资中部分特中企业融资应该银行够股票债券市场融资金基型企业中企业证券市场难融资金算融部分中企业应间接融资市场资金融通战场先找准中企业资金源选择较正确融资方式算真正症药中企业融资难题较恰解决
第三中股份制银行断发展中银行整金融体系中具活力中企业金融服务中银行扮演国商业银行竞争者前垄断者角色成中国银行业金融创新载体1986年前中国国际结算业务基中国银行独家业务市场份额95％着中国金融体制改革济发展深入国际结算服务垄断形势开始发生变化1980年代成立全国中型股份制商业银行针国际交易结算业务业务开始具风险低成低利润高特点
43缺乏效评估机制
中企业信风险状况受前济形势未段时间整体济表现影响中国宏观调控政策济表现通胀指数评估中企业信风险水假设定区域段时间保持稳定增长国生产总值说明该区整体济期间表现优秀资金流动较畅商业银行贷款时偿容易发生信违约情况中企业规模相较般情况吸纳少量企业投资理层缺乏迅速反应效决策机制容易造成部控制稳定导致营业绩意中企业缺乏良部信风险控制技术财务信息缺乏透明度导致量信缺失事件
中企业组织结构营方式信贷融资特点中国商业银行现采信评估方法中企业融资难利完成偿付力稳定性风险控性等供应链金融模式特点解决银行中企业抵押中企业中企业间信息称问题获取信贷款提供设施时供应链金融模式独信市场法律道德风险容忽视部控制制度企业理者制定包括职理资产理等方面良部控制够促进企业发展反想知部控制顾名思义企业部调控公司高层控制检查执行程度建制度否合理较少部权力某串通部控制形虚设样重应收账款回收理方面公司开展赊销业务然表面够企业带效益增加程中会造成公司应收账款机会成造成应收账款回收风险公司带坏账损失保险类行业中营销通销商种模式搜狐公司说必须重视销商选择企业应该发展角度出发制定科学性信政策销商规定准确赊销期限信折扣政策销商进行信评价选择信度良销商降低公司应收账款回收风险外企业应该采取积极措施企业够效回收货款降低企业坏账风险
5海升叶公司财务风险控制策建议
51加强企业财务风险控制意识
进行财务分析程中应该真实完整财务数基础进行风险预警模型中数财务会计数中提取财会数真实性决定预警效果坏中企业应该注重财务员业务水提高问题建立合理科学评估标准奖惩机制充分全面调动财务员积极动性时准确预见风险快速回避化解危机根保证公司应注重公司员工素质培养重点培养公司高级理员财务员提高员工技专业水加强培养风险理意识适应现代化需企业发展财务理
外财务员身综合力财务风险预防起关重作提升整体财务表现势必行会计工作技术求突出具专业性应该具备时专业处理遇困难力财会员风险观念够明确危机意识够强会阻碍中企业发展助途径进行定改善：抓紧财会员职培训保证力处理新财务问题二力推动财务工作者进行学历学职称考试保证公司运营触犯法律造成必损失三开展财会继续教育落实金融工作者继续教育推动公司部结构建设健康方拢
52构建财务预警应急系统
确保中企业财务风险预警应急系统效建设相应构建流程进行序构建时应进行方面研究组织机构风险防控方法进行确定完善首先应建立健全财务风险预警组织机构通层级机构效配合确保预警应急体系效构建时保证充分发挥效组织应包括基数获取风险分析领导力需完成财务预警工作基础数收集渗透公司部门次风险分析层基础信息进行效分析明确风险级制定报效应防控方案领导层基风险预警分析结果做出相应防控决策预警组织进行考核监
中企业确立风险预警体系核心指标时应建立起科学风险预警评价指标体系确保评价指标符合企业实际情况够限度实现财务风险准确预估判断进行评价指标选取时应首先遵循科学性
53加强企业部控制
公司生产营活动必然会面着定风险方面公司处外部环境时刻发生着变化宏观环境国家政策等条件影响公司时会出现发展中阻碍方面公司部果理意识者方式存定问题会公司营带风险搜狐公司想长久稳定发展发展程中规避财务风险断更措施增强风险意识制度
然建立完善风险理部门公司生产营程进行控企业财务部门指定资深财务员负责企业财务风险问题断企业中财务理制度进行改革完善公司营理程中制度进行落实次断加强公司员工风险意识形成良工作作全公司角度加强财务风险理公司发展程中加强外部环境变化情况关注时根变化公司财务策略进行调整避免公司环境变化产生财务风险
创建改善企业财务系统公司避免财务风险基础公司财务制度建立健全情况准确反映公司信息业务信息效利财务信息理信息确保项业务活动正确决策执行
企业想全方位防范风险必须保证建立风险理机构全面死角全面企业风险理组织结构应该三部门组成：财务风险理领导部门直接领导财务风险理工作进行财务风险理外部监督部门财务风险理企业部监督部门两部门起监督纠正作确保财务理工作正确健康运行图53较全面完善财务风险理组织机构构成图
领导部门
外部监督部门
部三级风险防御机构
公司审计
第三级
财务风险理委员会
第二级
财务部负责
第级
财务员
财务员
财务员
图53财务风险组织架构图
财务风险理领导部门：职责建立完善公司综合财务风险理体系保证财务风险理工作够利进行
财务风险理部部门：通防务理系统三阶段完成公司业务活动中种财务风险控制第阶段财务部门财务员财务负责通日常财务活动识发现财务风险时作出控制通报部门财务风险理委员会等等系列连锁反应第二阶段公司财务风险理委员会日常业务活动中识风险控制风险部门反馈信息进行时处理传递第三阶段公司部审计部门公司财务运营方面进行审计通审计信息反馈传递参风险识控制中
外部监督机构：包括审计机构税务机关会计机构金融机构等机构公司营情况财务状况进行审计提出审计意见认证意见公司根意见解身情况做出相应财务风险理操作
6结
着世界济体化全球济市场化中企业规模断扩张中企业数量断增中企业面着越越金融风险种财务非财务风险纷纷显现越越纷繁复杂研究中企业金融风险特点做充分全面解中企业识中企业金融风险加效控制抵御中企业健康发展重保证中企业众行中脱颖出重前提样海升叶公司面更加激烈市场竞争环境复杂金融风险残酷考验公司财务理系统刚刚起步建设阶段公司应采取种措施识抵御财务风险控制财务风险确保公司财务理系统良成长环境企业发展坚实基础保证融资活动商业活动够正常高效运作文通中企业财务风险分析出结：
目前中国中企业金融风险重视预防意识较差特需分析研究金融风险
财务风险客观存整公司金融体系中确定公司盈利亏损运营条件否重方面起着决定性作彻底消风险影响现实种客观存决定完全理解避免全额投资筹款资产理收入分配
发展角度财务风险控制断变化断发展程重运战略思维实际操作建立风险控制体系继续企业中运作会更新改进系统
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企业财务风险预警控制
摘：财务风险企业面财政义务种风险该公司金融资产相关债务量函数某时候公司法支付需金利息公司债务例增加性提高金融风险早期预警控制效提供安全稳定金融环境文认通分析财务状况编制现金流量预算建立财务风险指标体系计算模型早期预报财务风险方面通建立效资结构选择正确筹资方法保持资产高流动性效控制金融风险
关键词：指数条款—金融风险预警指标效控制
总
什财务风险
财务风险财务成果财务状况风险财务风险狭义广义分狭义财务风险企业负债引起具体说指企业入资金增加丧失偿债力企业利润（股东收益）变性广义财务风险指企业财务系统中客观存种难法预料控制素作企业实现财务收益预期财务收益发生背离蒙受损失机会
文中财务风险指结构合理恰公司会失偿付力导致企业预期收益降投资者甚破产融资
财务风险产生呢数金融性质交易包括销售采购投资贷款种业务活动产生财务风险出现合法交易中新项目中兼收购中债务融资中源部分成中通理活动利益相关者竞争者外国政府天气出现社会负债营企业必营策略通债务理企业弥补股票基金足利贷款基金获利生产理需资金般发行股票（股权基金）债务中债务利息负担（包括银行贷款发行公司债券贸易信贷）确定果公司债务占高例者公司资金总额利润率低利率会股东分配利润减少股利减少股票投资风险增加例公司资金利润率10相应公司贷款发行债券面利率8股东利息收入高10果企业资金利润率降低8该公司求支付8贷款债券利息普通股股东收益低资金利润率事实财务杠杆作导致公司融资双刃剑通筹资产生利息率高利率股东带收入增长效应否成收入减少财务风险
公司生产理程中通常会遇种样财务风险财务风险存企业实现预期财务收益非常困难财务风险甚会威胁公司正常运行生产目前企业财务风险没理重视预测潜财务风险发现企业财务风险样效控制？
二财务风险早期预警指标体系
财务风险识财务风险理容利风险刚出现出现前予识准确握种财务风险信号产生原财务风险预警财务风险实际发生前捕捉监视种细微迹象变动利预防采取适策争取时间集团建立完善信息理系统旦发现财务风险信号准确时传员防事态逐步扩
效防范财务风险企业应采取措施建立预警指标体系进行财务分析
21分析收入水时时发现危险信号
公司收益包括3层次：营业收入固定收入周期性收入营业收入剩余总净收入中扣营成理成销售成税附加费固定收入基收入扣财务费收入周期性收入固定收入净非营业收入支出总额公司开始承担营收入损失时候开始该公司破产果周期性收入黑色非核心业务收入事产生证券房产销售果营收入黑色正常收入红色危机信号已出现企业资结构合理款规模利息负担沉重时候应该采取早期预警措施避免财务危机[1]8182
22 建立现金流量预算财务状况分析体系
企业现金流量预算编制财务理重组成部分准确现金流量预算帮助财务理分析财务状况提供风险预警信号作公司理财象现金现金流短期企业否够生存完全取决否黑色取决否足够支付种费现金该措施实施前提公司够获利润普通稳定业务应收账款应付账款存货保持稳定营活动产生现金流量净额应利润（否会产生危险信号）[2]125126准确制定现金流量预算企业应该总结项具体目标指明未预期收入现金流量量化方式考虑财务状况投资计划十天月季度年期间建立滚动现金流量预算
23建立风险分析指标体系时监控财务风险
列指标财务理常分析财务风险指标
1盈利力指标
长远果公司想远离财务危机必须具备良盈利力样外部融资力债务清算力会更强指标包括：
总资产净现值率（营活动产生现金流量+利息中获股利现金+现金支付利息+现金交纳税 均资产总额
净现值率营活动产生现金流量 销售收入净额
股东利益盈利力净利润 均股东权益
2偿付力
基企业风险债务引起企业营资金会操作风险财务风险衡量股权交易金融风险确定资产负债率需较股票交易盈利力债务资成率果前者者金利息收回时间实现财务杠杆利益时偿债力应该考虑现金数额金融流动性强债务分配额种金融产品否合理资范围评价指标：反映短期偿债力指标：流动率速动率等指标反映长期偿债力指标资产负债率权益数长期负债营运资金率资产收益率资产负债率等
3济效益
济效益高低直接体现企业理程度反映资产理指标包括应收账款周转率生产需求间衡率中：生产需求间衡率产品销售额工业产值
4企业发展潜力
衡量企业发展潜力指标包括销售增长率资保值增值率文采改进功效系数法进行综合评价规范评价指标——满意价值允许值然设计计算指标效率系数利德尔菲法确定指标权数加权算术均加权均均值综合效率系数该方法量化企业财务状况
5财务灵活性
财务灵活性意味着企业必须采取效措施改变现金流现金周转时间提高适应未预料需求机会力涉公司营活动产生净现金流量素反映财务灵活性指标包括：检验企业总资产流动性水营运资金总资产率期债务资赎回率实际净资产长期形资产率应收账款周转率存货周转率等
3财务风险预警模型构建
财务理者够利计算机技术（Excel财务分析软件）正财务风险指标需分析设计财务风险分析模型 建立数基区域（建立数表链接）计算分析区域然估算分析区域中单元中分析指标间创建公式数连接关系动计算出指标值指标值行业标准值参考值进行较继时间获预警数例表中值建立解析公式动生成短期偿债力率长期偿债力率公式中数连接期会计报表期会计报表数更新时模型中需计算分析值动生成帮助金融高时分析期财务风险状况金融风险分析模型样设计分析整合起
四加强企业财务预算理(集团公司例)
1建立财务预算理组织机构
集团公司法定代表集团财务预算理工作负总责成立关职部门组成财务预算理委员会拟订财务预算目标政策制定财务预算理具体措施办法审议衡财务预算方案组织达财务预算协调解决财务预算编制执行中问题组织审计考核财务预算执行情况督促企业完成财务预算目标
2规范财务预算编制程序方法
集团公司整体发展战略结合分级编制逐级汇总程序决策基础提出企业集团财务预算目标预算执行部门企业财务预算委员会达财务预算目标政策结合身特点预测执行条件提出详细部门财务预算方案财务预算委员会应进行充分协调发现问题提出初步调整意见反馈关预算执行部门予修正财务预算委员会逐级达预算执行部门执行
3做预算事前控制事中控制事控制
预算执行部门定期报告财务预算执行情况新情况新问题出现偏差较重项目特注重查找原提出改进营理措施建议
4充分利实时信息系统进行财务监控
部财务监控机制防范化解财务风险效措施部监控包括会计控制理控制两类集团财务监控工作建立项财务预算基础保证子公司资结构良财务运作符合企业集团整体利益更防范控制财务风险促进企业集团持续性发展般讲子公司派驻财务总监负责监督子公司财务行通董事会监事会子公司进行监控子公司监控结果通考核相关指标进行现金率流动率良资产率资产损失率净资产收益率等
企业集团充分运实时财务信息踪监督控制资金流消效资金占提高资金效率确保集团财务目标实现
5财务风险控制
果企业财务风险控制企业发展程中起积极作降低财务风险利企业创造相安全稳定运行环境建立财务风险指标体系企业应时采取措施检测企业情况财务风险企业应采取措施控制发现财务危险信号方面控制财务风险
1高风险意识味追求高利润考虑果肆意筹集资金增加财务负担利润金额衡量公司力唯标准度债务仅企业背负沉重利息负担旦企业生产程中断受阻现金流发生困难公司准时偿债务时企业面声誉受损风险需承担赔偿责终会导致破产公司承担危企业生存风险必须树立强风险控制意识
2建立利资结构公司应考虑风险容忍限度然需求选择力资结构低成风险获投资回报寻求风险收益间佳匹配方案
3选择合适融资方式综合考虑资金成财务风险种影响素基础企业应选择面融资序控制财务风险财务风险减程度首先融资应该部积累开始种方式难度风险企业保留更贷款力第二果公司外部筹集资金第选择应该发行股票选择应银行贷款降低偿金偿低限度债务财政压力
4采取适款策略然时款增加企业利润提高现金总额情况企业环境断变化中应该明确企业款收益回报额果预期收益回报法确定企业没足够理款企业必须知道什时候款什时候款样财务风险控制防止盲目贷导致财务损失
5保持资产高流动性资产流动性高企业控制财务风险减少财务负担重保证够资回收期更容易实现资流动性更强企业抵御财务风险力会更强
6保持盈利力果利润满足财务需求企业必须现金余额出售短期金融资产者更债务弥补资金缺口增加企业财务风险
保持盈利增加资减少债务够效控制财务风险
外文原文
On the corporate financial risk early warning and control
窗体底端
Abstract Financial risk that a firm will be unable to meet its financial obligations This risk is primarily a function of the relative amount of debt that the firm uses to finance its assets A higher proportion of debt increases the likelihood that at some point the firm will be unable to make the required interest and principal payments Early warning and controlling financial risks effectively can provide a safe and steady operating environment This paper believe that through analyzing the financial situation preparing the cashflow budget establishing the financial risk index system and computational model to warn early the financial risk On the other hand through establishing effective capital structure selecting correct fundraising methods and keep the assets highly liquid to control the financial risk effectively
Key words Index Terms financial risk early warning index control effectively
1INTRODUCTION
What is financial risk
The financial risk is finance achievement and the risk of financial standingThe financial risk separates the narrow sense and the broad senseThe narrow sense financial risk is fallen into debt the causable by the business enterprise concretely say to mean business enterprise because of lend funds but increment of lose the possibility of the ability of repaying debt and the variability of the business enterprise profits (shareholder income)The broad sense financial risk means the finance system of business enterprise in objective existence of because of various factor function that is hard or can not anticipate and control make business enterprise realization of financial income and expectation financial income occurrence deviate from as a result suffer a losing opportunity or possibility
In this paperfinancial risk refers to that because of the unreasonable structure and inappropriate financing companies may lose solvency which will lead to the declining in expected return and even bankruptcy of investors
How does financial riskFinancial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature including sales and purchases investments and loans and various other business activitiesIt can arise as a result of legal transactions new projects mergers and acquisitions debt financing the energy component of costs or through the activities of management stakeholders competitors foreign governments or weather In today＇s society debt management is a necessary business strategy for corporate Through debt management corporate can make up the shortage of equity fund and earn profit by using loan fund The fund needed in production and management generally come from the issued shares (or other equity funds) and debt In which the interest burden of debt (including bank loans issued corporate bonds and trade credit) is definite If debt takes up a high proportion in the total fund of the company or the company＇s profit rate is lower than the interest rate then the distributable profit of shareholders is reduced the dividend is decreased and the risk of stock investment is increased For example when a company＇s profit rate on fund is 10 and the corresponding interest rate of company＇s loan or the interest rate of issued bond＇ face is 8the interest income of shareholders will be higher than 10 if a company＇s profit rate on fund is lower than 8 the company would be required to pay loans or bonds interest by 8the income of common shareholders will be lower than profit rate on fund In fact the financial leverage resulting from company＇s fund raising is like a doubleedged sword and when the interest rate generated by fund raising is higher than interest rate it will bring growth effect to shareholders＇ income otherwise it is the financial risk of income reduction
Corporate usually encounter a wide variety of financial risks in production and management process Because of the existence of financial risks corporate are very difficult to achieve the initial financial benefits and some of financial risks may even threaten the normal operation and production of corporate At present in some corporate financial risks are not received the attention from the management then how could corporate predict potential finance risks and have an effective control on them after discovering financial risks
2 EARL Y WARNING INDICATOR SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL RISK
The financial risk identifies is manage to the financial risk contents before the disadvantageous risk just appeared or appeared identify with accurate held various financial risk of signal and it creation reason The financial risk early warning wants before the financial risk physically takes place and catches and keeps watch on various small evidence to change with benefit prevention and for adopt an appropriate counterplan to fight for timeThe group wants to build up a perfect information management system once discovering financial risk signal the ability Be accurate to spread into a main personnel in time in order to prevent circumstances of gradually extension
To effectively prevent financial risks corporate should take some measures and establish early warning indicator system for financial risk analysis
21 Analyze the change income levels to timely detect risk signals
Corporate earnings include 3 levels operating income regular income and periodic income Operating income means the remaining net income deducting operating costs management cost sale cost tax and other additional cost from the total income Regular income is the income based on the income deducting finance charges While periodic income is the total of regular income and net nonoperating income and expenditure If a corporate has started to take a loss since the period of operating income this corporate is nearly bankrupt If the periodic income is in the black maybe this income is due to noncore operations or accident such as the sale of securities and real estate If the operating income is in the black while the regular income is in the red then the crisis signal has appearedwhich is because the corporate capital structure is irrational borrowing scale is large and the interest burden is heavy At this time some early warning measures should be taken to avoid the financial crises [1]8182
22 Develop the cash flow budget and analyze financial conditions
The development of corporate cash flow budget is one of the most important parts in financial management Accurate cash flow budget can help financial managers analyze financial conditions and provide risk early warning signal As the object of corporate finance is cash or cash flow so in the short term whether the corporate can survive is not entirely dependent on whether it is in the black but on whether there is sufficient cash for various expenses The premise of the precaution is that corporation should have the profit For common stable business its receivables payables and inventory can hold steady so the net amount of cash flow generated by operating activities should be greater than net profit (otherwise the dangerous signal occurs) [2]125126 To accurately develop cash flow budget corporate should summarize various specific objectives Indicate future expected income cash flow financial condition and invest plan in a quantized way and establish rolling cash flow budget considering ten days month quarter year as the period
23 Establish risk analysis indicator system and timely monitor financial risk
The following indicators are those financial indictors commonly used in the analysis of financial risk by financial managers
1 profitability
In the long run if a corporate wants to stay away from the financial crisis good profitability is a must then its external financing capacity and liquidation of debts capacity will be stronger Indicators include
Net present value rate of total assets (cash flow generated in operating activities+ dividends or cash obtained from interest payments+ cash interest payments+ cash to pay income tax) average total assets
Net present value rate of sale cash flow generated by operating activities net amount of sale income
Profitability of stockholder interest net profit average stockholder interest
2 Solvency
Basically the risk of corporate is caused by debts and a corporate operated by its own capital will have only operating risk not financial risk Therefore weighing the financial risk of trading on the equity to determine the debt ratio should compare the profitability of trading on the equity and the cost rate of debt capital only if the former is greater than the latter the principal and interest can be paid back in time to achieve the financial leverage profit At the same time debtpaying ability also should be taken into account that is the amount of cash or the allocation of strength debt of its financial the liquidity various whether items is capital among reasonable Assessment indicators are as follows indicators reflecting shortterm solvency such as current ratio quick ratio etc indicators reflecting longterm solvency such as assetliability ratio equity multiplier longterm liabilities and working capital ratio asset retained earnings ratio and debt equity ratio etc
3 Economic efficiency
Economic efficiency will directly embody the degree of corporate management Indicators reflecting the asset management include turnover rate of accounting receivable and balance rate between production and demand among which balance rate between production and demandproducts salesindustrial output value
4Corporate developmental potential
Indicators measuring corporate developmental potential include sales growth and capital maintenance and increment ratio This paper applies improved efficiency coefficient method to conduct comprehensive evaluation and standardizes several values for each evaluation indicatorone is satisfied value while the other is nonallowed value Then design and calculate individual efficiency coefficient of each indicators utilize Delphi method to determine each indicator weight and use weighted arithmetic mean or weighted geometric mean to obtain the average that is comprehensive efficiency coefficient This method can be used to quantify the financial situation of corporate
5 Financial flexibility
Financial flexibility means the capacity that corporate has to take effective measures to change the flow and time of cash flow for the purpose of adapting to unanticipated needs and opportunities which is mainly related to the net cash flow generated by companies operating activities Indicators reflecting financial flexibility include working capital used to test the liquidity level of corporate total assets ratio of total assets redemption rate for due debt capital ratio of actual net assets to tangible longterm assets accounts receivable and inventory turnover rate etc
3 THE CONSTRUCTION OF EARLY WARNING MODEL IN FINANCIAL RISK
Financial managers can use computer technology (such as Excel financial analysis software) to integrate the financial risk indicators which need to be analyzed to design a financial risk analysis model Establish fundamental region of data (or establish a data table connection) and calculation analysis region then create formulas and data connectivity relations for each analytical indicators in the cell of calculation analysis area in order to automatically figure out the value of each indicator finally compare the value of each indicator with industrystandard value or reference value consequently get the early warning data at any time For examplethe values in the table are automatically generated after the establishment of analytical formulasshortterm solvency ratio and longterm solvency ratio while the data used in formulas are connected to the accounting statement of each period Thus when the data in the accounting statements of each period are updated the analytical values which need to be calculated in the model are generated automatically to help financial executives analyze the situation of financial risks of each period timely Other financial risk analysis models are also designed like this and analyzed integrated together
4STRENGTHEN THE FINANCIAL BUDGET MANAGEMENT OF ENTERPRISES (TO GROUP COMPANY AS THE EXAMPLE)
1Build up the organization organization of finance budget management
Then the Legal Representative＇s management to the group finance budget work of group company is negative total responsibility establish from relevant the working talent section constitute of finance budget management committee mainly draw up the target policy of finance budget draw up the concrete measure and way of finance budget management review equilibrium finance budget project the organization bottom reaches finance budget and moderates to solve finance budget to draw up with the problem in the performance performance circumstance organize audit and investigate finance budget speed up business enterprise completion finance budget target
2The norm finance budget draws up procedure and method
According to the whole development strategy of the group company according to the procedure of up and down combine the ratings draw up pursue the class gather at decision of foundation up put forward the business enterprise group finance budget targetEach budget carries out the finance budget that the section reaches under the budget committee according to the business enterprise finance target and policy and combines oneself characteristics and the performance condition of estimate and puts forward detailed this section finance budget project the finance budget committee should carry on full moderate put forward the opinion of first step adjustment to the problem of detection and the feedback give to carry out a section to give correction concerning the budget again from finance budget committee pursue class the bottom reach each budget performance section performance
3Work well to control to control with after the event in the budgetary before the event control matter
Each budget carries out a section to periodically report the performance circumstance of finance budget to new circumstance new problem and appear deviation bigger and important item specially pay attention to check to seek reason to put forward the measure suggestion of improvement management managementWell make use of solid the information system carry on finance supervision
4Well make use of solid the information system carry on finance supervision
The establishment sound and internal finance supervises and controls a mechanism is the effective measure that guards against and dissolves financial riskSupervision in the inner part includes accountancy＇s control and management to control 2 typesThe group finance supervises and controls a work establishment on the foundation of each finance budget and promise the capital structure of subsidiary is good finance operation whole benefits according to business enterprise group thus and more better guard against and control financial risk promote business enterprise group of can keep on sex developmentIs general to come to speak can station a finance director general to the subsidiary be responsible for the finance behavior that inspects a subsidiaryCanning also pass board of directors and supervisor will carry on supervision to the subsidiaryTo the supervision result of subsidiary mainly pass to investigate related index sign to carry on like the cash ratio liquidity ratio bad property ratio and property loss ratio and clean property rate of return etc
Finance information for business enterprise group to makes the most of solid to follow direct and control funds to flow to take up by getting rid of invalid funds raise a funds use efficiency ensure the realization of group finance target
5 THE CONTROL ON FINANCIAL RISK
It will play a positive role for corporate development if they have a good control on financial risk Reducing financial risk will be beneficial for corporate to create a relatively secure and stable operating environment After establishing the system of financial risk analysis indicators corporate should take timely monitoring on the situation of financial risk Corporate should take measures to control them after finding risk signals They can control financial risk from the following aspects
1Strong sense of risk Corporate cannot constantly pursue high profits without considering the aftermath and wantonly raise money to increase the financial burden The amount of profit is not the sole criterion for the power of a company Excessive debt can not only let corporate bear a heavy burden of interest and once the process of reproduction is interrupted and obstructed cash flow problems occur and corporate cannot pay back debt on time they will face the risk of loss in reputation responsibility for compensation which will even lead to bankruptcy Corporate cannot run the risk of life threatening and must foster a strong sense to control risk
2 Establish the most favorable capital structure Corporate consider their risk to tolerance acquire to choose the most on advantageous capital structure Use the lowest capital cost and minimum risk maximum return investment seeking the best match between risk and profit
3Choose the right financing way On the basis of comprehensive consideration on funding cost financial risk and other various factors corporate should pick the following order of financing to control financial risk which can reduce their financial risk to minimum degree First financing should start from internal accumulation This way has small difficulty and little risk which can preserve more loaning capacity for corporate Second if corporate raise money from outside their first choice should be stock issue then the last choice goes to bank loans which can reduce the financial pressure of paying back principal and debt to the lowest limits
4 Take the appropriate borrowing strategies Although sometimes borrowing can increase the profit of corporate and improve cash however however no matter under any circumstances we should clear the expected return of borrowing in the changing corporate environment If the expected return cannot be determined corporate does not have the sufficient reason to borrow Therefore corporate must know when to borrow and when not to borrow Only in this way the financial risk can be controlled to prevent the financial failure caused by blind borrowing
5 Maintain the high mobility of assets A high degree of asset liquidity is an important guarantee for corporate to control financial risk and reduce financial burden The capital is achieved more easily liquidity is stronger and the ability to withstand the financial risk is also stronger
6 Maintain profitability If the profit cannot meet the financial needs corporate must rely on cash balances sell shortterm financial assets or borrow more debt to make up funding gaps and increase the corporate financial risk
Therefore maintaining profitability increasing capital and reducing debt can effectively control financial risk
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