4. 1980s1990s2000+Focus on Revenue and Cost ManagementFocus on Risk Control ; Quantitative FocusBring together management of profitability and risk.
Fully integrated profitability and risk information.
Forward-looking, not just static management tools.Transfer pricingActivity-based costingMark-to-marketPortfolio managementRisk-adjusted performanceValue at Risk風險管理的演進與發展
Source:PriceWaterhouseCoopers
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10. ParametricEstimates VaR with equation that specifies parameters such as volatility, correlation, delta, and gamma as input.
Monte Carlo simulationEstimates VaR by simulating random scenarios and revaluing positions in the portfolio.
Historical simulationEstimates VaR by reliving history; takes actual historical rates and revalues positions for each change in the market.計算風險值不同的方法10
11. VaR 的假定與限制VaR 是一個統計上的觀念,因此計算時會受到數字樣本大小以及取樣時間長短的影響:
VaR 並不代表最壞情況下的損失
VaR 並不顯示尾端分配之外的損失
風險值通常假定市場有一常態的軌律,意即數字的機率分配是屬於常態的
非常態分配的原因通常是:
資產價格的變化不是常態;
非常態的金融商品,如股票買權、賣權等
非常態分配的金融商品通常有厚尾現象,依據非常態分配所計算出的風險值常會低估實際的風險11
16. Credit risk vs Market riskThe nature of risk distributions - skewed and similar to option positions
Time horizons
Aggregations and risk limits
Mixed cases
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17. Credit scoring systemPre-identify certain key factors that determine the probability of default, and calculate a numerical score with the factors
Altman (1968) Z-score model concludes an equation:
Z = 1.2 X1 + 1.4 X2 + 3.3 X3 + 0.6 X4 + 1 X5
X1 = working capital / total assets ratio
X2 = retained earnings / total assets ratio
X3 = earnings before interest and tax / total assets ratio
X4 = market value of equity / book value of total liabilities
X5 = sales / total assets ratio
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19. 第一支柱:資本適足率A cushion against unexpected losses.
Eligible capital = shareholders' equity and retained earnings (tier 1 capital) + supplementary capital (tier 2 capital) as defined in the 1988 Accord + some short-term subordinated debt (tier 3 capital).Minimum Capital Requirements= 8% ofRisk-weighted AssetsCredit Risk-weightingMarket Risk-weightingOperational Risk-weighting++More complex (3 approaches)Introduced 1997, small changes
SmallNew and variable (also 3 approaches)
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22. 第三支柱:公開揭露8.監理單位干預1.信用評等2.股價債﹖價格波動3.資產財務評價正確性4.風險管理機制有效性5.損失準備與預估損失6.資本結構特性7.嚴謹的資產分類(IAS OR FASB)股東價值與公開揭露22
23. 5. 資本的使用與績效
24. 損失的分類與定義Expected Loss
the losses which must be assumed to arise on a continuing basis as a consequence of doing business
Statistical Loss
the unusual, though predictable, losses which the Bank should be able to absorb in the normal course of business
computes loss for defined probability of occurrence
Stress Loss
focused on extreme, but unlikely events which the Bank must be able to survive724
25. Absorbed by Risk CapitalDebited toRevenuesProtected throughConcentration Limitsm
ExpectedLosss
UnexpectedLossw
StressLossLosses
(CHF MM)Frequency of Losses圖示:損失的分配與分類825
26. 對於不同損失的對策與管理Expected Loss – m
the Logical extension of Mark to Market
Unexpected Loss – s
what we are all striving to measure as Risk Capital
Stress Loss – w
what banks control through Limits926
27. m Expected Loss Protection
Income Recognition Valuation Policy
s Unexpected Loss Protection
Aggregated Risk Measure Value at Risk
w Stress Loss Protection
Risk Class / Risk Factor Risk Factor Loss Limits Market Type / Regional Market / Country Country Ceilings
Transaction Large & Complex Transactions Policy
Underwriting Policy
Issuer Issuer Risk Policy
Trading Type Proprietary Trading Policy Risk / Control Type Policy / Measure市場風險的分類管理1027
29. Value at Risk Expected / Unexpected LossLosses from single eventsLosses due to Remaining VolatilityTotal Economic CapitalQuantified Risk各項風險的量化與整合Source:Deutsche Bank29