暨南大学MBA之人力资源管理
- 1. HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING版权所有 吴三清博士
- 2. OBJECTIVESDiscuss the importance of HR planning. Explain the relationship between strategic HRM and HR planning. Examine some key environmental influences on HR planning. Discuss the basic approaches to HR planning. Describe the ways of forecasting HR requirements and availability. Discuss the requirements for effective HR planning.
- 3. If you don’t want to plan for success, what right do you have to worry about non-success? If you’re not planning where you want to be, what reason or excuse do you have for worrying about being nowhere? TOM HOPKINS, American sales trainer, motivator and author. Plans get you into things but you got to work your way out. WILL ROGERS (1879-1935), American actor, performer and humorist.
- 4. IMPORTANCE OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNINGThe purpose of HR planning is to ensure that a predetermined number of persons with the correct skills are available at a specified time in the future. HR planning systematically identifies what must be done to guarantee the availability of the human resources needed by an organisation to meet its strategic business objectives. HR planning cannot be undertaken in isolation. It must be linked to the organisation’s overall business strategy.
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- 6. STRATEGIC HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNINGAs part of the strategic planning process, HR planning must consider the environmental influences on an organisation, its objectives, culture, structure and HRM . HR planning must reflect the environmental trends and issues that affect an organisation’s management of its human resources. Government regulations relating to conditions of employment, EEO, industrial relations and occupational health and safety, for example, must be integrated with an organisation’s HRM strategies. Other examples include demographic changes, the casualisation of the work force, employee literacy, skill shortages, acquisitions, mergers and divestures, deregulation, flexible work schedules, telecommuting and outsourcing.
- 7. APPROACHES TO HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNINGTHE QUANTITATIVE APPROACH The quantitative approach sees employees as numerical entities and groups them according to age, sex, experience, skills, qualification, job level, pay, performance rating or some other means of classification. The focus is on forecasting HR shortages, surpluses and career blockages; its aim is to reconcile the supply and demand for human resources given the organization’s objectives.
- 8. Trend ProjectionTrend projection or time series analysis predictions work by projecting trends of the past and present into the future. This technique is based on the assumption that the future will be a continuation of the past.
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- 10. Econometric ModellingEconometric modelling and multiple predictive techniques involve building complex computer models to simulate future events based on probabilities and multiple assumptions.
- 11. THE QUALITATIVE APPROACHThe qualitative approach to HR planning uses expert opinion (usually a line manager) to predict the future (for example, the marketing manager will be asked to estimate the future personnel requirements for the marketing department). The focus is on evaluations of employee performance and capacity for promotion as well as management and career development
- 12. Delphi TechniqueA refinement on this basic approach is the Delphi technique: a panel of experts such as key line managers make independent anonymous predictions in answer to questions relating to HR planning. The responses are analysed by the HR department and the confidential results are fed back to the experts along with another series of questions. The managers revise their original estimates in light of this new information. This process is repeated until a consensus forecast is obtained.
- 13. FORECASTING HUMAN RESOURCE AVAILABILITYOnce the HR manager has estimated the HR needs of the organisation, the next challenge is to fill the projected vacancies. Present employees who can be promoted, transferred, demoted or developed make up the internal supply. Constraints may apply on the use of both internal and external labour supplies (for example, a ‘promotion from within’ policy, union restrictions, management preference and government regulations).
- 14. FORECASTING THE SUPPLY OF INTERNAL HUMAN RESOURCESTurnover analysis A detailed analysis of why people leave the organisation is essential if meaningful information is to be obtained. Labour turnover rates from past years are the best source of this information for most organisation. Turnover for each job classification and department should also be calculated because turnover can vary dramatically among various work functions and departments.
- 15. Skills Inventory This consolidates basic information on all employees within the organisation and permits the HR manager to: identify qualified employees for different jobs determine which skills are present or lacking in the organisation assess longer term recruitment, selection and training and development requirements. Skills inventories can be quite simple and manually kept, or detailed and maintained as part of an integrated HR information system (HRIS).
- 16. Replacement Charts Replacement charts summarise this information in visual form for key managers so they can easily identify both the present incumbents and potential replacements (or lack of) for given positions. Markov Analysis This is a mathematical technique used to forecast the availability of internal job candidates. The underlying assumption is that the movement of personnel among various job classifications can be predicted from past movements.
- 17. SUCCESSION PLANNING Succession planning is concerned with the filling of management vacancies. It stresses the development of high potential employees and takes a long-term view of the organisation’s HR needs. The HR manager’s role is to ensure that succession planning provides the organisation’s future managers with the necessary preparation to successfully fill potential vacancies. This means having an effective performance appraisal system, needs-orientated training and development programs, and a corporate culture which fosters individual growth and promotion from within.
- 18. FORECASTING THE AVAILABILITY OF EXTERNAL HUMAN RESOURCESCasualisation of the work force In Australia, 24 per cent of all employees are now casual workers. International Employees Companies are increasingly seeking employees outside their domestic market. Technological advances in communication and increased labour mobility have facilitated internationalisation of businesses.
- 19. Outsourcing ‘By strategically outsourcing and emphasising a company’s core competencies,’ argue Quinn and Hilmer, ‘managers can leverage their firm’s skills and resources for increased competitiveness.’ The reasons for organisations choosing to outsource include: increased focus on core business cost and quality access to improved technology elimination of union problems
- 20. REQUIREMENTS FOR EFFECTIVE HR PLANNINGSuccessful HR planning requires: HR personnel understand the HR planning process top management is supportive the organisation does not start with an overly complex system the communications between HR personnel and line management are healthy the HR plan is integrated with the organisation’s strategic business plan there is a balance between the quantitative and qualitative approaches to HR planning
- 21. SummaryThe HR plan affects all HR activities and acts as the strategic link between organisational and HRM objectives. An effective planning process if essential to optimising the organisation’s human resources. HR managers will have to successfully demonstrate that HR planning is relevant to the needs of line managers.
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