第八章 公司战略和净现值分析

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1. Chapter Outline8.1 Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV 8.2 Decision Trees 8.3 Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, and Break-Even Analysis 8.4 Options 8.5 Summary and Conclusions
2. Introduce new products Apple Corporation and the mouse Develop core technology Honda and small engines Create barrier to entry Qualcomm’s patents on proprietary technology Introduce variations on existing products Chrysler’s PT Cruiser Create product differentiation Coca-Cola—it’s the real thing Utilize organizational innovation Motorola just-in-time inventory management Exploit a new technology Yahoo!’s use of banner advertisements on the web Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV
3. Corporate Strategy and the Stock MarketThere should be a connection between the stock market and capital budgeting. If the firm invests in a positive NPV projects, the firm’s stock price should go up. Sometimes the stock market provides negative clues as to a new project’s NPV. Consider AT&T’s repeated attempts to penetrate the computer-manufacturing industry.
4. 8.2 Decision TreesAllow us to graphically represent the alternatives available to us in each period and the likely consequences of our actions.
5. Example of Decision TreeDo not studyStudy financeOpen circles represent decisions to be made.Filled circles represent receipt of information e.g. a test score in this class.The lines leading away from the circles represent the alternatives.“C”“A”“B”“F”“D”
6. Stewart Pharmaceuticals The Stewart Pharmaceuticals Corporation is considering investing in developing a drug that cures the common cold. A corporate planning group, including representatives from production, marketing, and engineering, has recommended that the firm go ahead with the test and development phase. This preliminary phase will last one year and cost $1billion. Furthermore, the group believes that there is a 60% chance that tests will prove successful. If the initial tests are successful, Stewart Pharmaceuticals can go ahead with full-scale production. This investment phase will cost $1,600 million. Production will occur over the next 4 years.
7. Stewart Pharmaceuticals NPV of Full-Scale Production following Successful TestNote that the NPV is calculated as of date 1, the date at which the investment of $1,600 million is made. Later we bring this number back to date 0. InvestmentYear 1Years 2-5Revenues$7,000Variable Costs(3,000)Fixed Costs(1,800)Depreciation(400)Pretax profit$1,800Tax (34%)(612)Net Profit$1,188Cash Flow-$1,600$1,588
8. Decision Tree for Stewart PharmaceuticalDo not testTestFailureSuccessDo not investInvestInvestThe firm has two decisions to make:To test or not to test.To invest or not to invest.
9. Stewart Pharmaceutical: Decision to TestLet’s move back to the first stage, where the decision boils down to the simple question: should we invest? The expected payoff evaluated at date 1 is:The NPV evaluated at date 0 is:So we should test.
10. 8.3 Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, and Break-Even AnalysisAllows us to look the behind the NPV number to see firm our estimates are. When working with spreadsheets, try to build your model so that you can just adjust variables in one cell and have the NPV calculations key to that.
11. Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario AnalysisIn the Stewart Pharmaceutical example, revenues were projected to be $7,000,000 per year. If they are only $6,000,000 per year, the NPV falls to $1,341.64 Also known as “what if” analysis; we examine how sensitive a particular NPV calculation is to changes in the underlying assumptions.InvestmentYear 1Years 2-5Revenues$6,000Variable Costs(3,000)Fixed Costs(1,800)Depreciation(400)Pretax profitTax (34%)Net ProfitCash Flow-$1,600
12. Sensitivity AnalysisWe can see that NPV is very sensitive to changes in revenues. For example, a 14% drop in revenue leads to a 61% drop in NPVFor every 1% drop in revenue we can expect roughly a 4.25% drop in NPV
13. Scenario AnalysisA variation on sensitivity analysis is scenario analysis. For example, the following three scenarios could apply to Stewart Pharmaceuticals: The next years each have heavy cold seasons, and sales exceed expectations, but labor costs skyrocket. The next years are normal and sales meet expectations. The next years each have lighter than normal cold seasons, so sales fail to meet expectations. Other scenarios could apply to FDA approval for their drug. For each scenario, calculate the NPV.
14. Break-Even AnalysisAnother way to examine variability in our forecasts is break-even analysis. In the Stewart Pharmaceuticals example, we could be concerned with break-even revenue, break-even sales volume or break-even price. The break-even IATCF is given by:
15. Break-Even AnalysisWe can start with the break-even incremental after-tax cash flow and work backwards through the income statement to back out break-even revenue: InvestmentcalculationCash Flow RevenuesVariable CostsFixed CostsDepreciationPretax profitTax (34%)Net ProfitCash Flow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCash Flow RevenuesVariable CostsFixed CostsDepreciationPretax profitTax (34%)Net Profit= 504 - depreciation$104.75Cash Flow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCash Flow RevenuesVariable CostsFixed CostsDepreciationPretax profit= 104.75 ÷ (1-.34)$158.72Tax (34%)Net Profit= 504 - depreciation$104.75Cash Flow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCash Flow Revenues= 158.72+VC+FC+D$5,358.72Variable Costs(3,000)Fixed Costs(1,800)Depreciation(400)Pretax profit= 104.75 ÷ (1-.34)$158.72Tax (34%)Net Profit= 504 - depreciation$104.75Cash Flow$504.75
16. Break-Even AnalysisNow that we have break-even revenue as $5,358.72 million we can calculate break-even price and sales volume. If the original plan was to generate revenues of $7,000 million by selling the cold cure at $10 per dose and selling 700 million doses per year, we can reach break-even revenue with a sales volume of only:We can reach break-even revenue with a price of only:
17. 8.4 OptionsOne of the fundamental insights of modern finance theory is that options have value. The phrase “We are out of options” is surely a sign of trouble.
18. OptionsBecause corporations make decisions in a dynamic environment, they have options that should be considered in project valuation. The Option to Expand Has value if demand turns out to be higher than expected. The Option to Abandon Has value if demand turns out to be lower than expected. The Option to Delay Has value if the underlying variables are changing with a favorable trend.
19. The Option to Delay: ExampleConsider the above project, which can be undertaken in any of the next 4 years. The discount rate is 10 percent. The present value of the benefits at the time the project is launched remain constant at $25,000, but since costs are declining the NPV at the time of launch steadily rises. The best time to launch the project is in year 2—this schedule yields the highest NPV when judged today.
20. Discounted Cash Flows and OptionsWe can calculate the market value of a project as the sum of the NPV of the project without options and the value of the managerial options implicit in the project. A good example would be comparing the desirability of a specialized machine versus a more versatile machine. If they both cost about the same and last the same amount of time the more versatile machine is more valuable because it comes with options.
21. The Option to Abandon: ExampleSuppose that we are drilling an oil well. The drilling rig costs $300 today and in one year the well is either a success or a failure. The outcomes are equally likely. The discount rate is 10%. The PV of the successful payoff at time one is $575. The PV of the unsuccessful payoff at time one is $0.
22. The Option to Abandon: Example Traditional NPV analysis would indicate rejection of the project.
23. The Option to Abandon: ExampleThe firm has two decisions to make: drill or not, abandon or stay.Do not drillDrillFailureSuccess: PV = $500Sell the rig; salvage value = $250 Sit on rig; stare at empty hole: PV = $0.Traditional NPV analysis overlooks the option to abandon.
24. The Option to Abandon: Example When we include the value of the option to abandon, the drilling project should proceed:
25. Valuation of the Option to AbandonRecall that we can calculate the market value of a project as the sum of the NPV of the project without options and the value of the managerial options implicit in the project.
26. 8.5 Summary and ConclusionsThis chapter discusses a number of practical applications of capital budgeting. We ask about the sources of positive net present value and explain what managers can do to create positive net present value. Sensitivity analysis gives managers a better feel for a project’s risks. Scenario analysis considers the joint movement of several different factors to give a richer sense of a project’s risk. Break-even analysis, calculated on a net present value basis, gives managers minimum targets. The hidden options in capital budgeting, such as the option to expand, the option to abandon, and timing options were discussed.