第四章 净现值

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1. Chapter Outline4.1 The One-Period Case 4.2 The Multiperiod Case 4.3 Compounding Periods 4.4 Simplifications 4.5 What Is a Firm Worth? 4.6 Summary and Conclusions
2. 4.1 The One-Period Case: Future ValueIf you were to invest $10,000 at 5-percent interest for one year, your investment would grow to $10,500 $500 would be interest ($10,000 × .05) $10,000 is the principal repayment ($10,000 × 1) $10,500 is the total due. It can be calculated as: $10,500 = $10,000×(1.05). The total amount due at the end of the investment is call the Future Value (FV).
3. 4.1 The One-Period Case: Future ValueIn the one-period case, the formula for FV can be written as: FV = C1×(1 + r) Where C1 is cash flow at date 1 and r is the appropriate interest rate.
4. 4.1 The One-Period Case: Present ValueIf you were to be promised $10,000 due in one year when interest rates are at 5-percent, your investment be worth $9,523.81 in today’s dollars. The amount that a borrower would need to set aside today to to able to meet the promised payment of $10,000 in one year is call the Present Value (PV) of $10,000.Note that $10,000 = $9,523.81×(1.05).
5. 4.1 The One-Period Case: Present ValueIn the one-period case, the formula for PV can be written as: Where C1 is cash flow at date 1 and r is the appropriate interest rate.
6. 4.1 The One-Period Case: Net Present ValueThe Net Present Value (NPV) of an investment is the present value of the expected cash flows, less the cost of the investment. Suppose an investment that promises to pay $10,000 in one year is offered for sale for $9,500. Your interest rate is 5%. Should you buy?Yes!
7. 4.1 The One-Period Case: Net Present ValueIn the one-period case, the formula for NPV can be written as:If we had not undertaken the positive NPV project considered on the last slide, and instead invested our $9,500 elsewhere at 5-percent, our FV would be less than the $10,000 the investment promised and we would be unambiguously worse off in FV terms as well: $9,500×(1.05) = $9,975 < $10,000.
8. 4.2 The Multiperiod Case: Future ValueThe general formula for the future value of an investment over many periods can be written as: FV = C0×(1 + r)T Where C0 is cash flow at date 0, r is the appropriate interest rate, and T is the number of periods over which the cash is invested.
9. 4.2 The Multiperiod Case: Future ValueSuppose that Jay Ritter invested in the initial public offering of the Modigliani company. Modigliani pays a current dividend of $1.10, which is expected to grow at 40-percent per year for the next five years. What will the dividend be in five years? FV = C0×(1 + r)T $5.92 = $1.10×(1.40)5
10. Future Value and CompoundingNotice that the dividend in year five, $5.92, is considerably higher than the sum of the original dividend plus five increases of 40-percent on the original $1.10 dividend: $5.92 > $1.10 + 5×[$1.10×.40] = $3.30 This is due to compounding.
11. Future Value and Compounding012345
12. Present Value and CompoundingHow much would an investor have to set aside today in order to have $20,000 five years from now if the current rate is 15%?012345$20,000PV
13. How Long is the Wait?If we deposit $5,000 today in an account paying 10%, how long does it take to grow to $10,000?
14. Assume the total cost of a college education will be $50,000 when your child enters college in 12 years. You have $5,000 to invest today. What rate of interest must you earn on your investment to cover the cost of your child’s education? About 21.15%. What Rate Is Enough?
15. 4.3 Compounding PeriodsCompounding an investment m times a year for T years provides for future value of wealth:For example, if you invest $50 for 3 years at 12% compounded semi-annually, your investment will grow to
16. Effective Annual Interest RatesA reasonable question to ask in the above example is what is the effective annual rate of interest on that investment?The Effective Annual Interest Rate (EAR) is the annual rate that would give us the same end-of-investment wealth after 3 years:
17. Effective Annual Interest Rates (continued)So, investing at 12.36% compounded annually is the same as investing at 12% compounded semiannually.
18. Continuous Compounding (Advanced)The general formula for the future value of an investment compounded continuously over many periods can be written as: FV = C0×erT Where C0 is cash flow at date 0, r is the stated annual interest rate, T is the number of periods over which the cash is invested, and e is a transcendental number approximately equal to 2.718. ex is a key on your calculator.
19. 4.4 SimplificationsPerpetuity A constant stream of cash flows that lasts forever. Growing perpetuity A stream of cash flows that grows at a constant rate forever. Annuity A stream of constant cash flows that lasts for a fixed number of periods. Growing annuity A stream of cash flows that grows at a constant rate for a fixed number of periods.
20. PerpetuityA constant stream of cash flows that lasts forever.0…1C2C3CThe formula for the present value of a perpetuity is:
21. Perpetuity: ExampleWhat is the value of a British consol that promises to pay £15 each year, every year until the sun turns into a red giant and burns the planet to a crisp? The interest rate is 10-percent.0…1£152£153£15
22. Growing PerpetuityA growing stream of cash flows that lasts forever.0…1C2C×(1+g)3C ×(1+g)2The formula for the present value of a growing perpetuity is:
23. Growing Perpetuity: ExampleThe expected dividend next year is $1.30 and dividends are expected to grow at 5% forever. If the discount rate is 10%, what is the value of this promised dividend stream?0…1$1.302$1.30×(1.05)3$1.30 ×(1.05)2
24. AnnuityA constant stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity.01C2C3CThe formula for the present value of an annuity is:TC
25. Annuity: ExampleIf you can afford a $400 monthly car payment, how much car can you afford if interest rates are 7% on 36-month loans?01$4002$4003$40036$400
26. Growing AnnuityA growing stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity.01CThe formula for the present value of a growing annuity:2C×(1+g)3C ×(1+g)2T C×(1+g)T-1
27. Growing AnnuityA defined-benefit retirement plan offers to pay $20,000 per year for 40 years and increase the annual payment by 3-percent each year. What is the present value at retirement if the discount rate is 10-percent?01$20,0002$20,000×(1.03)40 $20,000×(1.03)39
28. 4.5 What Is a Firm Worth?Conceptually, a firm should be worth the present value of the firm’s cash flows. The tricky part is determining the size, timing and risk of those cash flows.
29. 4.6 Summary and ConclusionsTwo basic concepts, future value and present value are introduced in this chapter. Interest rates are commonly expressed on an annual basis, but semi-annual, quarterly, monthly and even continuously compounded interest rate arrangements exist. The formula for the net present value of an investment that pays $C for N periods is:
30. 4.6 Summary and Conclusions (continued)We presented four simplifying formulae:
31. How do you get to Carnegie Hall?Practice, practice, practice. It’s easy to watch Olympic gymnasts and convince yourself that you are a leotard purchase away from a triple back flip. It’s also easy to watch your finance professor do time value of money problems and convince yourself that you can do them too. There is no substitute for getting out the calculator and flogging the keys until you can do these correctly and quickly.