1.
U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM
OUTLOOK AND TRENDS
Research, Idea & Promotion
www.rolandberger.com
2. TIA Mission Statement The mission of the Travel Industry Association of America is to represent the whole of the U.S. travel industry to promote and facilitate increased travel to and within the United States.
3. Travel and Tourism - 2003America’s 3rd Largest Retail Sales Industry
$555 billion total expenditures
$95 billion in tax revenue for federal, state and local governments
One of America’s Largest Employers
Employs 7.2 million people directly.
Tourism is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd largest employer in 30 states and the District of Columbia
$158.4 billion in travel-generated payroll
Source: Travel Industry Association of America (TIA)
4. Where We Were
5. Tumbling from the PeaksBetween 2000 and 2003
Domestic business travel down 15%
Domestic airline travel down 14%
Overseas travel to the U.S. down 30%
6. International Visitor Arrivals to U.S. from Key Countries
2003 % Change Recovery to
(in millions) 2003/2000 2000 Expected
Canada 12.7 -14% 2007
United Kingdom 3.9 -16 2006
Japan 3.2 -37 Beyond 2007
Germany 1.2 -34 Beyond 2007
France 0.7 -37 Beyond 2007
Brazil 0.4 -53 Beyond 2007
Argentina 0.2 -72 Beyond 2007
Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
7. Bright SpotDomestic Leisure Travel
Slow but steady growth
Stay closer to home
Highway travel
Short getaways
Visits to small towns, rural areas
Economize
8. Travel Performance – First Three Quarters 2004 During Jan – Sept, 2004, domestic travel up nearly 3%
Leisure travel up 2.0%, exceeded by 6.8% gain in business/convention travel
Strong gains in air and hotel volume over 2003
International travel to U.S. exceeding expectationsSource: Travel Industry Association of America
9. Visitor Trends Occurring More in Past Year Source: Travel Industry Association of AmericaPercent of TIA Members Reporting
10. NTA Operators’ Products Source: National Tour AssociationPercent of NTA Operators
11. RV Travel Strong7.8% of all U.S. vehicle-owning households own an RV, up from 7.3% in 1997
7.2 million RVs on the road, compared to 6.4 million in 1997
RV Shipments Up 14% in 2004
RV Rentals Up Nearly 33% in 2003 and 2004 Combined
6.4% of RV Rentals by International Visitors
Source: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association
12. National Parks and Public LandsNational Park Visitation up 4% through November 2004;
Sale of Park Passes up 8%
See America’s National Parks partnership with TIA, National Park Service and National Park Foundation
13. Travel Policies – Air Business Travelers 2004 and 2002Source: Travel Industry Association of America and
National Business Travel AssociationPercent of Air Business Travelers
14. Alternative Technologies Used By Business Travelers in Past Year, 2004Source: Travel Industry Association of America and
National Business Travel AssociationPercent of Business Travelers
15. Effectiveness and Efficiency of Technology to Replace Travel, 2004 and 2002Source: Travel Industry Association of America and
National Business Travel AssociationPercent of Air Business Travelers – Top Two Boxes
16. AUTO TRAVEL PERFORMANCEU.S. auto travel up 2% through September 2004
Still holding up due to:
Shifts from air, especially for short-distance trips
Closer-to-home travel
Increasing interest in family travel
Increased interest in RVs
17. Airline TurbulenceDomestic air travel up 5% over 2003, but still 10% below 2000.
International is up 14% over 2003, but better yet, up 5% over 2000.
Exchange rates make U.S. even more of a bargain
US Air, United and ATA in bankruptcy
Airline losses $8 billion in 2004; $23 billion between 2001 - 2003
18. U.S. Hotel Performance Strengthens In 2004Source: Smith Travel Research% Change over Prior Year
19. Changes to Domestic Advertising and Marketing ProgramsSource: Travel Industry Association of AmericaAmong 90% of Members with Domestic Marketing Programs
20. Where are We Going?
21. Americans’ Economic Assessments Are Mixed41% now rate economic conditions as positive, up slightly
48% say economy getting better vs. 42% who say it is getting worse
Noticeable decline in citing economy as most important problem facing America – now 30% vs. 38% - 40% in autumn of 2004
Only 33% says it’s a good time to “find a quality job”, vs. 62% who say it’s a bad time Source: Gallup Surveys
22. U.S. Leisure OutlookLeisure travel intentions remain strong
Trends of the last few years will continue but some return to more normal patterns
Growth in air travel exceeding that of auto travel
Continued focus on family and connections but greater participation in other activities too
Spending up 4% in 2004 over 2003
23. Domestic Leisure Travel Will Continue to Grow SlowlyMillion of Person-TripsSource: Travel Industry Association of America
24. Domestic Business Travel Will Rise but Still Below 2000 LevelsMillions of Person-TripsSource: TIA and Global InsightNote: Does not include combined business/leisure travel
25. U.S. Hotel Performance Expected to Remain Healthy in 2005Source: Smith Travel Research% Change over Prior Year
26. Forecasts for Growth in U.S. Domestic Travel, 2005
Total Domestic Person-Trips 2.0%
Leisure 1.7%
Business 3.6%
Auto 2.0%
Air 2.0%
Hotel Room Demand 3.0% Source: TIA, ATA, Smith Travel Research
27. International Visits Expected to Increase Again in 2005Arrivals in MillionsSource: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI)
28. Travel Expenditures Will Continue to Risep = preliminary; f = forecast
BillionsSource: TIA; OTTI
29. Online Travel Planning Steady and Booking Continues to RiseSource: Travel Industry Association of AmericaMillions
30. How We Sell and Distribute Travel Changed ForeverInternet for leisure and business
Pricing more transparent; consumer in control
Encourages late bookings
Increases competition
Online hotel sales soaring
31. What’s Ahead?
32. Long Term TrendsWho will be tomorrow’s travelers and what will they do?
How will technology and changing work/leisure patterns affect the nature of travel planning and travel itself?
How will we reach them?
What types of tourism are likely to grow?
33. Key Demographic TrendsAging of population
Changes in households
Rising education
Geographic shifts
Cultural diversity
Influence of women
Growing niche markets
34. Percent Change in Population by Age, 2010/2000 and 2020/2000(Percent Change)Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
35. “Junior” Matures (Age 55 - 64) More Likely Than Other Travelers To ……Travel farther away from home
Stay away from home longer
Include two or more destinations in one trip
Engage in more activities
Travel with only one other household member, likely their spouse
Spend more per tripSource: TIA
36. Maturity TrendsIncrease in adult-only travel parties
Slower growth in travelers looking for “traditional” family experiences
Interest in local heritage & culture increases
Maturialism
37. Important Reasons for U.S. Family VacationsSources: Better Homes & Gardens and Travel Industry Association of America(% of 2002 Family Vacationers)
Family Togetherness 87%
Get Away from Stress 74
Rest and Relaxation 71
Visit Friends/Relatives 62
Excitement/New Experiences 50
Physical Activity 43
New Places/People 43
For Luxury/Feel Pampered 25
38. Top 10 Activities Among
U.S. Domestic Travelers, 2003Shopping 30%
Social/Family Event 27
Outdoor Recreation 11
City/Urban Sightseeing 10
Rural Sightseeing 10
Beach Activities 10
Historical Places/Museums 8
Theme/Amusement Park 7
Gambling 7
National/State Parks 7Source: TIA
39. 81% of Travelers Included Cultural/Arts/Heritage Activities on Trips in Past YearSource: TIA and Smithsonian Magazine
40. Cultural, Arts, Heritage or Historic Activities Included on Trips in Past Year(% of U.S. Adults)Source: TIA and Smithsonian Magazine
41. More Older Women Living AloneMillionsMenWomenSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
42. Millennial Generation – Great Potential for the FutureChildren of the Boomers
Born between 1977 and 1994; 10 – 27 years of age in 2004
72 million, 28% of population
13% of those age 20 – 24 were born outside the U.S.
43. Millennial Generation – Great Potential for the FutureRacially and ethnically diverse
Very independent
Feel powerful
But of those age 20 – 24, 50% of men and 36% of women still live with or are dependent on parents
Media-savvy
Technology leaders
44. Travel by Minority Groups IncreasingHispanics 77.1 million person-trips (8% of total)
African-Americans 75.2 million person-trips (7% of total)
Asian-Americans 33.1 million
(3% of total)Source: TIA
45. Ethnic Groups to Grow to 50% of Population by 2050% Distribution of PopulationSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
46. Hispanics will Increasingly Dominate MillionsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
47. Changing Nature of Work and Leisure Blurring of boundaries of space and time for work and leisure
Dramatic growth in work flexibility
Reduced need to travel solely for business, but combined business/leisure and leisure travel will grow
Both business and leisure travel more motivated by self-actualization
48. Consumer Trends Likely to BuildMore focus on doing well while doing good
Growing interest in making contribution to society
Could stimulate rise in “Volun-tourism”
Increasing emphasis on quality of life and lifestyle enhancement
Rising emphasis on environment and sustainability
49. Consumer Trends Likely to BuildEducation more recognized and promoted as a lifelong goal to enhance self-actualization - personal best
Leisure as learning
50. Types of Tourism Likely to GrowVisit Friends/Relatives/Reunions/ Intergenerational and Grand-Travel
Combined Business and Leisure Travel
Second Homes and Time Share
Destination Spas
Enrichment Tourism
51. Types of Tourism Likely to GrowHealth/Revitalization/Life-Enhancement Tourism: Peter Pan generation; say no to aging
Eco-Tourism and Soft Adventure
Space Tourism
International Travel (In and Out-Bound)
Virtual Travel
52. ConclusionsGrowth in international travel demand exceeding domestic
Forecasts for similar, although somewhat slower demand growth in 2005
Despite rising demand, some sectors still struggling financially
Rising fuel costs, sluggish job growth and slower economic growth will continue to make financial recovery elusive for some
Internet will continue to gain ground in many aspects of travel
53. ConclusionsRenewed sense of optimism
“Up to us to seize the day” (James Rasulo, President, Walt Disney Parks & Resorts
“It is time for us to soar!” (Roger Dow, President & CEO, TIA)
Strive toward enhancing tourism’s influence as a tool for world peace and restoring our image around the world
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55. International Pow Wow® is the U.S. travel industry's premier international marketplace and is the largest generator of Visit USA travel.
56. International Pow WowHistoryFirst Held in 1969
Commodore Hotel, New York City
68 U.S. Travel Suppliers
67 European Tour Operators
57. International Pow Wow Is…
NOT a typical trade show.
58. More than 1,000 U. S. travel organizations from every region and industry category of the USA
More than 1,500 international delegates and domestic buyers from 70 + countries
59. Three days of intensive pre-scheduled, computer-generated business appointments matching buyers & sellers – 44 appointment slots
30,000+ appointments
60. International Pow WowComputerized Appointment Priorities1. Mutual International Buyer and U.S. Supplier requests
2. International Buyer only requests
3. Mutual Domestic Buyer and U.S. Supplier requests4. Domestic Buyer only requests
5. U.S. Supplier only requests (up to five)
6. International Journalist requests
7. Visit USA Committee requests
61. Premier buyers are pre-qualified based on their proven capability to sell the USA as a travel destination
62. Business negotiations that result in billions in future Visit USA travel
63. Several hundred million dollars goes directly to Host City & State
64. “At International Pow Wow, buyers and sellers are able to conduct business that would otherwise be generated only through an exhaustive number of around-the-world trips.”
65. International Pow Wow 20055,500+ Total Delegates
3,000+ U.S. Suppliers
1,000 + U.S. Companies
1,200 + Booths
1,500 International Delegates and Domestic Buyers
70 Countries
400 International and Domestic Press
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69. Press ProgramWorking Press Room
Media Marketplace
Press Briefing Rooms
Press Kit Room
Pow Wow News Service on CD
Online Press Release Program
Pow Wow Daily Ad Packages
Press Book Ads
70. Press Room
71. Media Marketplace
72. A record-setting 397 journalists attended International Pow Wow in Los Angeles from all the top tourist-generating nations in the world. International
And Domestic
Press
73. Networking, Entertainment
& Great Business
74. See America Marketplace Hall
75. Lunch for 5,000
76. Keynote and Invited SpeakersGlenn TiltonBill MarriottAl GoreGov. BushGov. Schwarzenegger
77. Entertainment
78. Evening Events are fun and make great….
79. …..Networking Opportunities
80. Schedule of EventsRegistration
Booth Setup
Sightseeing Tours
Press Event at MOMA
Open Evening for all othersTuesday, May 3
81. Schedule of EventsRegistration, Booth Setup Cont’d
Sightseeing Tours
Orientation Session
Market Update
Opening Evening Event at Rockefeller CenterWednesday, May 4
82. Schedule of EventsRegistration
Ribbon cutting
Business Appointments
Media Marketplace
Luncheon with Keynote Address – Henry Silverman, Chairman & CEO, Cendant
Evening Event at Time/Warner buildingThursday, May 5
83. Schedule of EventsRegistration
Business Appointments
Luncheon with a Broadway Showcase
Open Evening for Private EventsFriday, May 6
84. Schedule of EventsBusiness Appointments
Closing Luncheon
Closing Evening Event at Ellis IslandSaturday, May 7Sunday, May 8 Departures
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86. TIA Marketing Goals:
Promote travel to and within the United States
SeeAmerica brand leverage
Coop opportunities for all organizations, large and small
Added value
87. To set the stage for thousands of travel industry organizations who want to speak the same language in the marketplace
To leverage everyone’s funds for mutual benefit
88. TIA Strategy
Trade: SeeAmerica Weeks, SeeAmerica Pavilions, direct mail, online promotions
Media: PR, Media Marketplace
89. TIA StrategyConsumer: coop advertising inserts with complementary editorial
SeeAmerica.org: One stop shopping for U.S. travel
90. our National Brand
91. See America Themes
2002 Greetings From America Partnership with USPS
2003 See America’s Byways Partnership with Dept. of Transportation
2004 See America’s National Parks partnership with National Park Service and National Park Foundation
92. 2005 Theme
93. See America Treasure Hunt Game and Sweepstakes Online game with categories, (think “Jeopardy” meets “Who wants to be a Millionaire?”); i.e. National Parks, America’s Byways, American movies, etc.
94. SeeAmerica Treasure Hunt Game Concept Cont’dEngage people by activity interest or geographic interest to encourage visitation.
All game answers linked to appropriate web sites.
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96. TIMINGLaunched UK at WTM with movie category only to tie in with DOC campaign
Launch international at ITB
Launch domestic at Pow Wow
97. Game CategoriesNational Parks
Scenic Byways
American Movies
Recreation & Outdoors
American CitiesAmusement Parks
Famous Americans
Historical Sites
Famous Places
Just for Fun
States
98. Sweepstakes StructureQualified entry: you must answer three questions to be entered into the sweepstakes.
Prizes: Proposed U.S. trips, each with a theme:
America’s Greatest Cities & Amtrak
National Parks trip: Four Corners through Las Vegas gateway
Theme parks: Orlando
Movies: Hollywood
Finger Lakes/Niagara Falls
Alaska Cruise
99. Sweepstakes, Cont’dViral Component: send sweeps entry to three friends and get an additional entry for yourself.
Collect names (opt in) for future email marketing.
100. U.S. Coop Advertising Opportunities 2005Reader’s Digest – March Issue (sold out)
USA Today – May 6 & September 16
National Geographic Traveler – July/August Issue
101. Radio Promotion Packaged promotion using game content
30 prizes per market
5-day promotion, 6 questions per day, one prize giveaway per question
See America Week (National Tourism Week) May 8 -15, 2005
102. TRADE SHOW Tie-inGoal: build traffic to exhibitors in SeeAmerica Pavilions
Use Treasure Hunt game questions to promote visitation to booths for answers
Drawing at end for grand prize trip to the U.S.
103. TradeshowsUK: WTM, November 8-11, 2004
Germany: ITB, March 11-15, 2005
Worldwide: International Pow Wow, May 3-7, 2005
Japan: JATA, September 22-25, 2005
Brazil: ABAV, October 19-23, 2005
104. TIA UK Cooperative Program with CMGSunday Times inserts – January 30 (sold out) March 20 & September 25
Daily Mail inserts – March 26 & September 17
Travel Agent Direct Mail: 16,000
Essentially America: Winter/Spring/Fall
105. Participation Opportunities
Use game content in customized promotions
Place ads in Roland Berger Cooperative inserts: USA and UK
Offer prizes for radio game during See America week, May 8 – 15, 2005
106. Kart. Jennie,
Project Director
Anca Ioan, Managing PartnerJon Payne,
Project CoordinatorPresentation: Eric Chow