• 1. U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM OUTLOOK AND TRENDS Research, Idea & Promotion www.rolandberger.com
    • 2. TIA Mission Statement The mission of the Travel Industry Association of America is to represent the whole of the U.S. travel industry to promote and facilitate increased travel to and within the United States.
    • 3. Travel and Tourism - 2003America’s 3rd Largest Retail Sales Industry $555 billion total expenditures $95 billion in tax revenue for federal, state and local governments One of America’s Largest Employers Employs 7.2 million people directly. Tourism is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd largest employer in 30 states and the District of Columbia $158.4 billion in travel-generated payroll Source: Travel Industry Association of America (TIA)
    • 4. Where We Were
    • 5. Tumbling from the Peaks Between 2000 and 2003 Domestic business travel down 15% Domestic airline travel down 14% Overseas travel to the U.S. down 30%
    • 6. International Visitor Arrivals to U.S. from Key Countries 2003 % Change Recovery to (in millions) 2003/2000 2000 Expected Canada 12.7 -14% 2007 United Kingdom 3.9 -16 2006 Japan 3.2 -37 Beyond 2007 Germany 1.2 -34 Beyond 2007 France 0.7 -37 Beyond 2007 Brazil 0.4 -53 Beyond 2007 Argentina 0.2 -72 Beyond 2007 Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
    • 7. Bright SpotDomestic Leisure Travel Slow but steady growth Stay closer to home Highway travel Short getaways Visits to small towns, rural areas Economize
    • 8. Travel Performance – First Three Quarters 2004 During Jan – Sept, 2004, domestic travel up nearly 3% Leisure travel up 2.0%, exceeded by 6.8% gain in business/convention travel Strong gains in air and hotel volume over 2003 International travel to U.S. exceeding expectationsSource: Travel Industry Association of America
    • 9. Visitor Trends Occurring More in Past Year Source: Travel Industry Association of AmericaPercent of TIA Members Reporting
    • 10. NTA Operators’ Products Source: National Tour AssociationPercent of NTA Operators
    • 11. RV Travel Strong7.8% of all U.S. vehicle-owning households own an RV, up from 7.3% in 1997 7.2 million RVs on the road, compared to 6.4 million in 1997 RV Shipments Up 14% in 2004 RV Rentals Up Nearly 33% in 2003 and 2004 Combined 6.4% of RV Rentals by International Visitors Source: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association
    • 12. National Parks and Public LandsNational Park Visitation up 4% through November 2004; Sale of Park Passes up 8% See America’s National Parks partnership with TIA, National Park Service and National Park Foundation
    • 13. Travel Policies – Air Business Travelers 2004 and 2002Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel AssociationPercent of Air Business Travelers
    • 14. Alternative Technologies Used By Business Travelers in Past Year, 2004Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel AssociationPercent of Business Travelers
    • 15. Effectiveness and Efficiency of Technology to Replace Travel, 2004 and 2002Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel AssociationPercent of Air Business Travelers – Top Two Boxes
    • 16. AUTO TRAVEL PERFORMANCEU.S. auto travel up 2% through September 2004 Still holding up due to: Shifts from air, especially for short-distance trips Closer-to-home travel Increasing interest in family travel Increased interest in RVs
    • 17. Airline TurbulenceDomestic air travel up 5% over 2003, but still 10% below 2000. International is up 14% over 2003, but better yet, up 5% over 2000. Exchange rates make U.S. even more of a bargain US Air, United and ATA in bankruptcy Airline losses $8 billion in 2004; $23 billion between 2001 - 2003
    • 18. U.S. Hotel Performance Strengthens In 2004Source: Smith Travel Research% Change over Prior Year
    • 19. Changes to Domestic Advertising and Marketing ProgramsSource: Travel Industry Association of AmericaAmong 90% of Members with Domestic Marketing Programs
    • 20. Where are We Going?
    • 21. Americans’ Economic Assessments Are Mixed41% now rate economic conditions as positive, up slightly 48% say economy getting better vs. 42% who say it is getting worse Noticeable decline in citing economy as most important problem facing America – now 30% vs. 38% - 40% in autumn of 2004 Only 33% says it’s a good time to “find a quality job”, vs. 62% who say it’s a bad time Source: Gallup Surveys
    • 22. U.S. Leisure OutlookLeisure travel intentions remain strong Trends of the last few years will continue but some return to more normal patterns Growth in air travel exceeding that of auto travel Continued focus on family and connections but greater participation in other activities too Spending up 4% in 2004 over 2003
    • 23. Domestic Leisure Travel Will Continue to Grow SlowlyMillion of Person-TripsSource: Travel Industry Association of America
    • 24. Domestic Business Travel Will Rise but Still Below 2000 LevelsMillions of Person-TripsSource: TIA and Global InsightNote: Does not include combined business/leisure travel
    • 25. U.S. Hotel Performance Expected to Remain Healthy in 2005Source: Smith Travel Research% Change over Prior Year
    • 26. Forecasts for Growth in U.S. Domestic Travel, 2005 Total Domestic Person-Trips 2.0% Leisure 1.7% Business 3.6% Auto 2.0% Air 2.0% Hotel Room Demand 3.0% Source: TIA, ATA, Smith Travel Research
    • 27. International Visits Expected to Increase Again in 2005Arrivals in MillionsSource: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI)
    • 28. Travel Expenditures Will Continue to Risep = preliminary; f = forecast BillionsSource: TIA; OTTI
    • 29. Online Travel Planning Steady and Booking Continues to RiseSource: Travel Industry Association of AmericaMillions
    • 30. How We Sell and Distribute Travel Changed Forever Internet for leisure and business Pricing more transparent; consumer in control Encourages late bookings Increases competition Online hotel sales soaring
    • 31. What’s Ahead?
    • 32. Long Term TrendsWho will be tomorrow’s travelers and what will they do? How will technology and changing work/leisure patterns affect the nature of travel planning and travel itself? How will we reach them? What types of tourism are likely to grow?
    • 33. Key Demographic TrendsAging of population Changes in households Rising education Geographic shifts Cultural diversity Influence of women Growing niche markets
    • 34. Percent Change in Population by Age, 2010/2000 and 2020/2000(Percent Change)Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    • 35. “Junior” Matures (Age 55 - 64) More Likely Than Other Travelers To ……Travel farther away from home Stay away from home longer Include two or more destinations in one trip Engage in more activities Travel with only one other household member, likely their spouse Spend more per tripSource: TIA
    • 36. Maturity TrendsIncrease in adult-only travel parties Slower growth in travelers looking for “traditional” family experiences Interest in local heritage & culture increases Maturialism
    • 37. Important Reasons for U.S. Family VacationsSources: Better Homes & Gardens and Travel Industry Association of America(% of 2002 Family Vacationers) Family Togetherness 87% Get Away from Stress 74 Rest and Relaxation 71 Visit Friends/Relatives 62 Excitement/New Experiences 50 Physical Activity 43 New Places/People 43 For Luxury/Feel Pampered 25
    • 38. Top 10 Activities Among U.S. Domestic Travelers, 2003Shopping 30% Social/Family Event 27 Outdoor Recreation 11 City/Urban Sightseeing 10 Rural Sightseeing 10 Beach Activities 10 Historical Places/Museums 8 Theme/Amusement Park 7 Gambling 7 National/State Parks 7Source: TIA
    • 39. 81% of Travelers Included Cultural/Arts/Heritage Activities on Trips in Past YearSource: TIA and Smithsonian Magazine
    • 40. Cultural, Arts, Heritage or Historic Activities Included on Trips in Past Year (% of U.S. Adults)Source: TIA and Smithsonian Magazine
    • 41. More Older Women Living AloneMillionsMenWomenSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    • 42. Millennial Generation – Great Potential for the FutureChildren of the Boomers Born between 1977 and 1994; 10 – 27 years of age in 2004 72 million, 28% of population 13% of those age 20 – 24 were born outside the U.S.
    • 43. Millennial Generation – Great Potential for the FutureRacially and ethnically diverse Very independent Feel powerful But of those age 20 – 24, 50% of men and 36% of women still live with or are dependent on parents Media-savvy Technology leaders
    • 44. Travel by Minority Groups IncreasingHispanics 77.1 million person-trips (8% of total) African-Americans 75.2 million person-trips (7% of total) Asian-Americans 33.1 million (3% of total)Source: TIA
    • 45. Ethnic Groups to Grow to 50% of Population by 2050% Distribution of PopulationSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    • 46. Hispanics will Increasingly Dominate MillionsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    • 47. Changing Nature of Work and Leisure Blurring of boundaries of space and time for work and leisure Dramatic growth in work flexibility Reduced need to travel solely for business, but combined business/leisure and leisure travel will grow Both business and leisure travel more motivated by self-actualization
    • 48. Consumer Trends Likely to BuildMore focus on doing well while doing good Growing interest in making contribution to society Could stimulate rise in “Volun-tourism” Increasing emphasis on quality of life and lifestyle enhancement Rising emphasis on environment and sustainability
    • 49. Consumer Trends Likely to BuildEducation more recognized and promoted as a lifelong goal to enhance self-actualization - personal best Leisure as learning
    • 50. Types of Tourism Likely to GrowVisit Friends/Relatives/Reunions/ Intergenerational and Grand-Travel Combined Business and Leisure Travel Second Homes and Time Share Destination Spas Enrichment Tourism
    • 51. Types of Tourism Likely to GrowHealth/Revitalization/Life-Enhancement Tourism: Peter Pan generation; say no to aging Eco-Tourism and Soft Adventure Space Tourism International Travel (In and Out-Bound) Virtual Travel
    • 52. ConclusionsGrowth in international travel demand exceeding domestic Forecasts for similar, although somewhat slower demand growth in 2005 Despite rising demand, some sectors still struggling financially Rising fuel costs, sluggish job growth and slower economic growth will continue to make financial recovery elusive for some Internet will continue to gain ground in many aspects of travel
    • 53. ConclusionsRenewed sense of optimism “Up to us to seize the day” (James Rasulo, President, Walt Disney Parks & Resorts “It is time for us to soar!” (Roger Dow, President & CEO, TIA) Strive toward enhancing tourism’s influence as a tool for world peace and restoring our image around the world
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    • 55. International Pow Wow® is the U.S. travel industry's premier international marketplace and is the largest generator of Visit USA travel.
    • 56. International Pow Wow HistoryFirst Held in 1969 Commodore Hotel, New York City 68 U.S. Travel Suppliers 67 European Tour Operators
    • 57. International Pow Wow Is… NOT a typical trade show.
    • 58. More than 1,000 U. S. travel organizations from every region and industry category of the USA More than 1,500 international delegates and domestic buyers from 70 + countries
    • 59. Three days of intensive pre-scheduled, computer-generated business appointments matching buyers & sellers – 44 appointment slots 30,000+ appointments
    • 60. International Pow Wow Computerized Appointment Priorities1. Mutual International Buyer and U.S. Supplier requests 2. International Buyer only requests 3. Mutual Domestic Buyer and U.S. Supplier requests4. Domestic Buyer only requests 5. U.S. Supplier only requests (up to five) 6. International Journalist requests 7. Visit USA Committee requests
    • 61. Premier buyers are pre-qualified based on their proven capability to sell the USA as a travel destination
    • 62. Business negotiations that result in billions in future Visit USA travel
    • 63. Several hundred million dollars goes directly to Host City & State
    • 64. “At International Pow Wow, buyers and sellers are able to conduct business that would otherwise be generated only through an exhaustive number of around-the-world trips.”
    • 65. International Pow Wow 20055,500+ Total Delegates 3,000+ U.S. Suppliers 1,000 + U.S. Companies 1,200 + Booths 1,500 International Delegates and Domestic Buyers 70 Countries 400 International and Domestic Press
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    • 69. Press ProgramWorking Press Room Media Marketplace Press Briefing Rooms Press Kit Room Pow Wow News Service on CD Online Press Release Program Pow Wow Daily Ad Packages Press Book Ads
    • 70. Press Room
    • 71. Media Marketplace
    • 72. A record-setting 397 journalists attended International Pow Wow in Los Angeles from all the top tourist-generating nations in the world. International And Domestic Press
    • 73. Networking, Entertainment & Great Business
    • 74. See America Marketplace Hall
    • 75. Lunch for 5,000
    • 76. Keynote and Invited SpeakersGlenn TiltonBill MarriottAl GoreGov. BushGov. Schwarzenegger
    • 77. Entertainment
    • 78. Evening Events are fun and make great….
    • 79. …..Networking Opportunities
    • 80. Schedule of EventsRegistration Booth Setup Sightseeing Tours Press Event at MOMA Open Evening for all othersTuesday, May 3
    • 81. Schedule of EventsRegistration, Booth Setup Cont’d Sightseeing Tours Orientation Session Market Update Opening Evening Event at Rockefeller CenterWednesday, May 4
    • 82. Schedule of EventsRegistration Ribbon cutting Business Appointments Media Marketplace Luncheon with Keynote Address – Henry Silverman, Chairman & CEO, Cendant Evening Event at Time/Warner buildingThursday, May 5
    • 83. Schedule of EventsRegistration Business Appointments Luncheon with a Broadway Showcase Open Evening for Private EventsFriday, May 6
    • 84. Schedule of EventsBusiness Appointments Closing Luncheon Closing Evening Event at Ellis IslandSaturday, May 7Sunday, May 8 Departures
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    • 86. TIA Marketing Goals: Promote travel to and within the United States SeeAmerica brand leverage Coop opportunities for all organizations, large and small Added value
    • 87. To set the stage for thousands of travel industry organizations who want to speak the same language in the marketplace To leverage everyone’s funds for mutual benefit
    • 88. TIA Strategy Trade: SeeAmerica Weeks, SeeAmerica Pavilions, direct mail, online promotions Media: PR, Media Marketplace
    • 89. TIA StrategyConsumer: coop advertising inserts with complementary editorial SeeAmerica.org: One stop shopping for U.S. travel
    • 90. our National Brand
    • 91. See America Themes 2002 Greetings From America Partnership with USPS 2003 See America’s Byways Partnership with Dept. of Transportation 2004 See America’s National Parks partnership with National Park Service and National Park Foundation
    • 92. 2005 Theme
    • 93. See America Treasure Hunt Game and Sweepstakes Online game with categories, (think “Jeopardy” meets “Who wants to be a Millionaire?”); i.e. National Parks, America’s Byways, American movies, etc.
    • 94. SeeAmerica Treasure Hunt Game Concept Cont’dEngage people by activity interest or geographic interest to encourage visitation. All game answers linked to appropriate web sites.
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    • 96. TIMING Launched UK at WTM with movie category only to tie in with DOC campaign Launch international at ITB Launch domestic at Pow Wow
    • 97. Game Categories National Parks Scenic Byways American Movies Recreation & Outdoors American CitiesAmusement Parks Famous Americans Historical Sites Famous Places Just for Fun States
    • 98. Sweepstakes StructureQualified entry: you must answer three questions to be entered into the sweepstakes. Prizes: Proposed U.S. trips, each with a theme: America’s Greatest Cities & Amtrak National Parks trip: Four Corners through Las Vegas gateway Theme parks: Orlando Movies: Hollywood Finger Lakes/Niagara Falls Alaska Cruise
    • 99. Sweepstakes, Cont’dViral Component: send sweeps entry to three friends and get an additional entry for yourself. Collect names (opt in) for future email marketing.
    • 100. U.S. Coop Advertising Opportunities 2005Reader’s Digest – March Issue (sold out) USA Today – May 6 & September 16 National Geographic Traveler – July/August Issue
    • 101. Radio Promotion Packaged promotion using game content 30 prizes per market 5-day promotion, 6 questions per day, one prize giveaway per question See America Week (National Tourism Week) May 8 -15, 2005
    • 102. TRADE SHOW Tie-inGoal: build traffic to exhibitors in SeeAmerica Pavilions Use Treasure Hunt game questions to promote visitation to booths for answers Drawing at end for grand prize trip to the U.S.
    • 103. TradeshowsUK: WTM, November 8-11, 2004 Germany: ITB, March 11-15, 2005 Worldwide: International Pow Wow, May 3-7, 2005 Japan: JATA, September 22-25, 2005 Brazil: ABAV, October 19-23, 2005
    • 104. TIA UK Cooperative Program with CMGSunday Times inserts – January 30 (sold out) March 20 & September 25 Daily Mail inserts – March 26 & September 17 Travel Agent Direct Mail: 16,000 Essentially America: Winter/Spring/Fall
    • 105. Participation Opportunities Use game content in customized promotions Place ads in Roland Berger Cooperative inserts: USA and UK Offer prizes for radio game during See America week, May 8 – 15, 2005
    • 106. Kart. Jennie, Project Director Anca Ioan, Managing PartnerJon Payne, Project CoordinatorPresentation: Eric Chow