UWEXTENSION的2005最新奶制品市场研究报告
- 1. Farm and Risk Management TeamCooperative Extension – Ag and Natural ResourcesDairy Price Risk Management Milk Market OutlookLast Update: Mar. 1, 20051
- 2. Monthly Basis2
- 3. Q: What’s a Good Price?A: It All Depends….. 3
- 4. Outlook InformationMilk Production Report Issued by NASS (USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service) mid-month covering previous month Milk cow numbers, Milk per cow, and total milk production Monthly data for 20 selected states representing about 85 % of U.S. milk production Quarterly data for all states4
- 5. NASS Milk Production Report: January ‘055
- 6. Milk Cows and Milk per Cow6
- 7. Outlook Information (Cont.)Milk/Feed Price Ratio Pounds of 16% dairy ration equal in value to one pound of milk Published around the first of the month as part of NASS monthly Agricultural Prices Dairy Product Stocks Commercial and government-held inventories of butter, cheese (by category) and NDM Published as part of NASS monthly Cold Storage Report7
- 8. 8
- 9. 9
- 10. 10
- 11. 11
- 12. Outlook Information (Cont.)Dairy Product Production Monthly factory production of all major dairy products, U.S. and major states Published by NASS around the first of the month for second preceding month Dairy Product Prices Weekly prices and weights used to calculate all Federal Order Class prices Covers Butter, Block and Barrel Cheddar Cheese, Nonfat Dry Milk, and Dry Whey Issued by NASS Friday am; covers week ending the previous Saturday 12
- 13. US Production of Major Manufactured Dairy Products, Jan-Dec 2004 v. Year Earlier13
- 14. 14
- 15. 15
- 16. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Cash or Spot MarketsGrade A butter (MWF) Block and barrel cheddar cheese (M-F) Grade A and extra-grade nonfat dry milk (M-F) Auction markets – bids and offers with sale when a bid is filled or an offer is accepted Reported price changes with a sale, an unfilled bid, or an uncovered offer Thin markets: sales represent only a small fraction of production Reference markets: prices for off-market contractual sales tied to CME prices16
- 17. Outlook Information (Cont.)Commercial Disappearance Imputed consumption – includes “pipeline” stocks as well as sales Published quarterly by USDA’s Economic Research Service Retail Dairy Prices Prices and price indices for major dairy products; national and regional Published monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 17
- 18. Change in Commercial Disappearance, Jan-Oct ‘04 v. Year Earlier18
- 19. 2000 and 2001 are USDA Forecasts19
- 20. Sources of Outlook InformationHard Copies: Dairy Market News Includes up-to-date information on all important outlook indicators Issued weekly on Friday. $50 annual subscription or access free at: http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy/mncs/weekly.htm NASS Reports Subscribe to individual reports(varying subscription charges and release dates) or access free at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/20
- 21. Sources of Outlook InformationInternet Sites U-W Madison, Dept. of Ag. And Applied Econ. http://www.aae.wisc.edu/future/ Links to all contracts and exchanges Charts and tables updated daily as new info released Includes excellent interactive tutorial on futures and options trading Downes-O’Neill Dairy Team http://www.dairy.nu/ Very quick access to current futures and options quotes Includes market analysis; daily summaries and forecasts21
- 22. Sources of Outlook InformationInternet Sites (Cont.) Penn State University – Ken Bailey http://www.aers.psu.edu/dairyoutlook Long-range price forecasts Good links to all USDA reports Weekly market analysis National Program for Integrated Dairy Risk Management Education and Research http://www-agecon.ag.ohio-state.edu/faculty/cthraen/idmer/Default.htm Not an outlook site, but contains a wealth of educational materials on risk management in general and futures and options specifically22
- 23. Consensus(??) Milk Price Outlook - 2005 Dairy Cow Numbers: Milk/Feed Price ratio: Stocks: Cheese Butter Product Prices: Cheese Butter Nonfat Dry Milk Total Milk Supply: Commercial Use Other??? 23
该用户的其他文档
相关PPT