第十二章 风险、资本成本和资本预算

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1. Chapter Outline12.1 The Cost of Equity Capital 12.2 Estimation of Beta 12.3 Determinants of Beta 12.4 Extensions of the Basic Model 12.5 Estimating International Paper’s Cost of Capital 12.6 Reducing the Cost of Capital 12.7 Summary and Conclusions
2. What’s the Big Idea?Earlier chapters on capital budgeting focused on the appropriate size and timing of cash flows. This chapter discusses the appropriate discount rate when cash flows are risky.
3. Invest in project12.1 The Cost of Equity CapitalFirm withexcess cashShareholder’s Terminal ValuePay cash dividendShareholder invests in financial assetBecause stockholders can reinvest the dividend in risky financial assets, the expected return on a capital-budgeting project should be at least as great as the expected return on a financial asset of comparable risk.A firm with excess cash can either pay a dividend or make a capital investment
4. The Cost of EquityFrom the firm’s perspective, the expected return is the Cost of Equity Capital: To estimate a firm’s cost of equity capital, we need to know three things:The risk-free rate, RFThe market risk premium,The company beta,
5. ExampleSuppose the stock of Stansfield Enterprises, a publisher of PowerPoint presentations, has a beta of 2.5. The firm is 100-percent equity financed. Assume a risk-free rate of 5-percent and a market risk premium of 10-percent. What is the appropriate discount rate for an expansion of this firm?
6. Example (continued) Suppose Stansfield Enterprises is evaluating the following non-mutually exclusive projects. Each costs $100 and lasts one year.Project Project b Project’s Estimated Cash Flows Next Year IRR NPV at 30% A 2.5 $150 50% $15.38 B 2.5 $130 30% $0 C 2.5 $110 10% -$15.38
7. Using the SML to Estimate the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate for Projects An all-equity firm should accept a project whose IRR exceeds the cost of equity capital and reject projects whose IRRs fall short of the cost of capital.Project IRRFirm’s risk (beta)5%Good projectsBad projects30%2.5ABC
8. 12.2 Estimation of Beta: Measuring Market RiskMarket Portfolio - Portfolio of all assets in the economy. In practice a broad stock market index, such as the S&P Composite, is used to represent the market. Beta - Sensitivity of a stock’s return to the return on the market portfolio.
9. 12.2 Estimation of BetaTheoretically, the calculation of beta is straightforward:Problems Betas may vary over time. The sample size may be inadequate. Betas are influenced by changing financial leverage and business risk. Solutions Problems 1 and 2 (above) can be moderated by more sophisticated statistical techniques. Problem 3 can be lessened by adjusting for changes in business and financial risk. Look at average beta estimates of comparable firms in the industry.
10. Stability of BetaMost analysts argue that betas are generally stable for firms remaining in the same industry. That’s not to say that a firm’s beta can’t change. Changes in product line Changes in technology Deregulation Changes in financial leverage
11. Using an Industry BetaIt is frequently argued that one can better estimate a firm’s beta by involving the whole industry. If you believe that the operations of the firm are similar to the operations of the rest of the industry, you should use the industry beta. If you believe that the operations of the firm are fundamentally different from the operations of the rest of the industry, you should use the firm’s beta. Don’t forget about adjustments for financial leverage.
12. 12.3 Determinants of BetaBusiness Risk Cyclicity of Revenues Operating Leverage Financial Risk Financial Leverage
13. Cyclicality of RevenuesHighly cyclical stocks have high betas. Empirical evidence suggests that retailers and automotive firms fluctuate with the business cycle. Transportation firms and utilities are less dependent upon the business cycle. Note that cyclicality is not the same as variability—stocks with high standard deviations need not have high betas. Movie studios have revenues that are variable, depending upon whether they produce “hits” or “flops”, but their revenues are not especially dependent upon the business cycle.
14. Operating LeverageThe degree of operating leverage measures how sensitive a firm (or project) is to its fixed costs. Operating leverage increases as fixed costs rise and variable costs fall. Operating leverage magnifies the effect of cyclicity on beta. The degree of operating leverage is given by:
15. Operating LeverageVolume$Fixed costsTotal costs EBIT VolumeOperating leverage increases as fixed costs rise and variable costs fall.Fixed costsTotal costs
16. Financial Leverage and BetaOperating leverage refers to the sensitivity to the firm’s fixed costs of production. Financial leverage is the sensitivity of a firm’s fixed costs of financing. The relationship between the betas of the firm’s debt, equity, and assets is given by: Financial leverage always increases the equity beta relative to the asset beta.
17. Financial Leverage and Beta: ExampleConsider Grand Sport, Inc., which is currently all-equity and has a beta of 0.90. The firm has decided to lever up to a capital structure of 1 part debt to 1 part equity. Since the firm will remain in the same industry, its asset beta should remain 0.90. However, assuming a zero beta for its debt, its equity beta would become twice as large:
18. 12.4 Extensions of the Basic ModelThe Firm versus the Project The Cost of Capital with Debt
19. The Firm versus the ProjectAny project’s cost of capital depends on the use to which the capital is being put—not the source. Therefore, it depends on the risk of the project and not the risk of the company.
20. Capital Budgeting & Project RiskA firm that uses one discount rate for all projects may over time increase the risk of the firm while decreasing its value.Project IRRFirm’s risk (beta)rfbFIRMIncorrectly rejected positive NPV projectsIncorrectly accepted negative NPV projectsHurdle rateThe SML can tell us why:
21. Suppose the Conglomerate Company has a cost of capital, based on the CAPM, of 17%. The risk-free rate is 4%; the market risk premium is 10% and the firm’s beta is 1.3. 17% = 4% + 1.3 × [14% – 4%] This is a breakdown of the company’s investment projects:1/3 Automotive retailer b = 2.0 1/3 Computer Hard Drive Mfr. b = 1.3 1/3 Electric Utility b = 0.6average b of assets = 1.3When evaluating a new electrical generation investment, which cost of capital should be used?Capital Budgeting & Project Risk
22. Capital Budgeting & Project RiskProject IRRFirm’s risk (beta)17%1.32.00.6r = 4% + 0.6×(14% – 4% ) = 10% 10% reflects the opportunity cost of capital on an investment in electrical generation, given the unique risk of the project.10%24%Investments in hard drives or auto retailing should have higher discount rates.
23. The Cost of Capital with DebtThe Weighted Average Cost of Capital is given by:It is because interest expense is tax-deductible that we multiply the last term by (1- TC)
24. 12.5 Estimating International Paper’s Cost of CapitalFirst, we estimate the cost of equity and the cost of debt. We estimate an equity beta to estimate the cost of equity. We can often estimate the cost of debt by observing the YTM of the firm’s debt. Second, we determine the WACC by weighting these two costs appropriately.
25. 12.5 Estimating IP’s Cost of CapitalThe industry average beta is 0.82; the risk free rate is 8% and the market risk premium is 9.2%. Thus the cost of equity capital is
26. 12.5 Estimating IP’s Cost of CapitalThe yield on the company’s debt is 8% and the firm is in the 37% marginal tax rate. The debt to value ratio is 32%12.18 percent is International’s cost of capital. It should be used to discount any project where one believes that the project’s risk is equal to the risk of the firm as a whole, and the project has the same leverage as the firm as a whole.
27. 12.6 Reducing the Cost of CapitalWhat is Liquidity? Liquidity, Expected Returns and the Cost of Capital Liquidity and Adverse Selection What the Corporation Can Do
28. What is Liquidity?The idea that the expected return on a stock and the firm’s cost of capital are positively related to risk is fundamental. Recently a number of academics have argued that the expected return on a stock and the firm’s cost of capital are negatively related to the liquidity of the firm’s shares as well. The trading costs of holding a firm’s shares include brokerage fees, the bid-ask spread and market impact costs.
29. Liquidity, Expected Returns and the Cost of CapitalThe cost of trading an illiquid stock reduces the total return that an investor receives. Investors thus will demand a high expected return when investing in stocks with high trading costs. This high expected return implies a high cost of capital to the firm.
30. Liquidity and the Cost of CapitalCost of CapitalLiquidityAn increase in liquidity, i.e. a reduction in trading costs, lowers a firm’s cost of capital.
31. Liquidity and Adverse SelectionThere are a number of factors that determine the liquidity of a stock. One of these factors is adverse selection. This refers to the notion that traders with better information can take advantage of specialists and other traders who have less information. The greater the heterogeneity of information, the wider the bid-ask spreads, and the higher the required return on equity.
32. What the Corporation Can DoThe corporation has an incentive to lower trading costs since this would result in a lower cost of capital. A stock split would increase the liquidity of the shares. A stock split would also reduce the adverse selection costs thereby lowering bid-ask spreads. This idea is a new one and empirical evidence is not yet in.
33. What the Corporation Can DoCompanies can also facilitate stock purchases through the Internet. Direct stock purchase plans and dividend reinvestment plans handles on-line allow small investors the opportunity to buy securities cheaply. The companies can also disclose more information. Especially to security analysts, to narrow the gap between informed and uninformed traders. This should reduce spreads.
34. 12.7 Summary and ConclusionsThe expected return on any capital budgeting project should be at least as great as the expected return on a financial asset of comparable risk. Otherwise the shareholders would prefer the firm to pay a dividend. The expected return on any asset is dependent upon b. A project’s required return depends on the project’s b. A project’s b can be estimated by considering comparable industries or the cyclicality of project revenues and the project’s operating leverage. If the firm uses debt, the discount rate to use is the rWACC. In order to calculate rWACC, the cost of equity and the cost of debt applicable to a project must be estimated.