第六章 投资决策的其他方法

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1. Chapter Outline6.1 Why Use Net Present Value? 6.2 The Payback Period Rule 6.3 The Discounted Payback Period Rule 6.4 The Average Accounting Return 6.5 The Internal Rate of Return 6.6 Problems with the IRR Approach 6.7 The Profitability Index 6.8 The Practice of Capital Budgeting 6.9 Summary and Conclusions
2. 6.1 Why Use Net Present Value?Accepting positive NPV projects benefits shareholders. NPV uses cash flows NPV uses all the cash flows of the project NPV discounts the cash flows properly
3. The Net Present Value (NPV) RuleNet Present Value (NPV) = Total PV of future CF’s + Initial Investment Estimating NPV: 1. Estimate future cash flows: how much? and when? 2. Estimate discount rate 3. Estimate initial costs Minimum Acceptance Criteria: Accept if NPV > 0 Ranking Criteria: Choose the highest NPV
4. Good Attributes of the NPV Rule1. Uses cash flows 2. Uses ALL cash flows of the project 3. Discounts ALL cash flows properly Reinvestment assumption: the NPV rule assumes that all cash flows can be reinvested at the discount rate.
5. 6.2 The Payback Period RuleHow long does it take the project to “pay back” its initial investment? Payback Period = number of years to recover initial costs Minimum Acceptance Criteria: set by management Ranking Criteria: set by management
6. The Payback Period Rule (continued)Disadvantages: Ignores the time value of money Ignores cash flows after the payback period Biased against long-term projects Requires an arbitrary acceptance criteria A project accepted based on the payback criteria may not have a positive NPV Advantages: Easy to understand Biased toward liquidity
7. 6.3 The Discounted Payback Period RuleHow long does it take the project to “pay back” its initial investment taking the time value of money into account? By the time you have discounted the cash flows, you might as well calculate the NPV.
8. 6.4 The Average Accounting Return RuleAnother attractive but fatally flawed approach. Ranking Criteria and Minimum Acceptance Criteria set by management Disadvantages: Ignores the time value of money Uses an arbitrary benchmark cutoff rate Based on book values, not cash flows and market values Advantages: The accounting information is usually available Easy to calculate
9. 6.5 The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) RuleIRR: the discount that sets NPV to zero Minimum Acceptance Criteria: Accept if the IRR exceeds the required return. Ranking Criteria: Select alternative with the highest IRR Reinvestment assumption: All future cash flows assumed reinvested at the IRR. Disadvantages: Does not distinguish between investing and borrowing. IRR may not exist or there may be multiple IRR Problems with mutually exclusive investments Advantages: Easy to understand and communicate
10. The Internal Rate of Return: ExampleConsider the following project:0123$50$100$150-$200The internal rate of return for this project is 19.44%
11. The NPV Payoff Profile for This ExampleIf we graph NPV versus discount rate, we can see the IRR as the x-axis intercept.IRR = 19.44%
12. 6.6 Problems with the IRR ApproachMultiple IRRs. Are We Borrowing or Lending? The Scale Problem. The Timing Problem.
13. Multiple IRRsThere are two IRRs for this project: 0 1 2 3$200 $800-$200- $800100% = IRR20% = IRR1Which one should we use?
14. The Scale ProblemWould you rather make 100% or 50% on your investments? What if the 100% return is on a $1 investment while the 50% return is on a $1,000 investment?
15. The Timing Problem0 1 2 3$10,000 $1,000 $1,000-$10,000Project A0 1 2 3$1,000 $1,000 $12,000-$10,000Project BThe preferred project in this case depends on the discount rate, not the IRR.
16. The Timing Problem10.55% = crossover rate12.94% = IRRB16.04% = IRRA
17. Calculating the Crossover RateCompute the IRR for either project “A-B” or “B-A” 10.55% = IRR
18. Mutually Exclusive vs. Independent ProjectMutually Exclusive Projects: only ONE of several potential projects can be chosen, e.g. acquiring an accounting system. RANK all alternatives and select the best one. Independent Projects: accepting or rejecting one project does not affect the decision of the other projects. Must exceed a MINIMUM acceptance criteria.
19. 6.7 The Profitability Index (PI) RuleMinimum Acceptance Criteria: Accept if PI > 1 Ranking Criteria: Select alternative with highest PI Disadvantages: Problems with mutually exclusive investments Advantages: May be useful when available investment funds are limited Easy to understand and communicate Correct decision when evaluating independent projects
20. 6.8 The Practice of Capital BudgetingVaries by industry: Some firms use payback, others use accounting rate of return. The most frequently used technique for large corporations is IRR or NPV.
21. Example of Investment RulesCompute the IRR, NPV, PI, and payback period for the following two projects. Assume the required return is 10%. Year Project A Project B 0 -$200 -$150 1 $200 $50 2 $800 $100 3 -$800 $150
22. Example of Investment Rules Project A Project B CF0 -$200.00 -$150.00 PV0 of CF1-3 $241.92 $240.80 NPV = $41.92 $90.80 IRR = 0%, 100% 36.19% PI = 1.2096 1.6053
23. Example of Investment RulesPayback Period: Project A Project B Time CF Cum. CF CF Cum. CF 0 -200 -200 -150 -150 1 200 0 50 -100 2 800 800 100 0 3 -800 0 150 150 Payback period for project B = 2 years. Payback period for project A = 1 or 3 years?
24. Relationship Between NPV and IRR Discount rate NPV for A NPV for B -10% -87.52 234.77 0% 0.00 150.00 20% 59.26 47.92 40% 59.48 -8.60 60% 42.19 -43.07 80% 20.85 -65.64 100% 0.00 -81.25 120% -18.93 -92.52
25. Project AProject B($200)($100)$0$100$200$300$400-15%0%15%30%45%70%100%130%160%190%Discount ratesNPVIRR 1(A) IRR (B)NPV ProfilesIRR 2(A) Cross-over Rate
26. 6.9 Summary and ConclusionsThis chapter evaluates the most popular alternatives to NPV: Payback period Accounting rate of return Internal rate of return Profitability index When it is all said and done, they are not the NPV rule; for those of us in finance, it makes them decidedly second-rate.