灰色理论模型在城市发展规划中的应用(英文)


    Team B85809 Team Number : 85809 Problem Chosen : B 2018 APMCM summary sheet Talent and urban development Abstract Talents are the motive force of urban innovation and development. This article disposes and analyzes the data of job demand in A city employment market, developing mathematical model through the analysis of known data to solve practical problems. The prominent feature of this paper is to establish the Grey Model to modeling analyze the known data according to the randomness of the dynamic change of the job demand data of A city's employment market, the incompleteness and uncertainty of the index data, and relying on the Grey Model, to realize the prediction of the variation trend of future development, so as to achieve the aim which expect to solve the practical premedication problem, simulate and analyze the actual situation of A city, then put forward feasible suggestions for urban development and talent strategy. Another outstanding feature is that to make a deep analysis of the talent demand and talent flow in A city, then provide the improvement the urban development strategy by expanding and applying the Grey Model, combining the influence of the actual economic development, the demand for science and technology development, the national employment policy and the like on the demand for talents in the “A city employment market“. According to the data given by Question 1, we classify and analyze the data from three aspects: work demand, job expectancy and educational background requirement. We build a Grey Model by MATLAB, by using the Grey Model, we analyze the data of four-year talent demand of A city, so as to get the forecasting model of talent demand of A city which can help to grasp the law of talent demand in “A City Employment Market“ In order to meet the needs of Question 2, we forecast and analyze the potential talent demand in A city in the next three years by using the Grey Model which built in Question 1. This paper combining the prediction model with the influence of the economic development situation, the demand for science and technology development, the national employment policy and other factors on the talent demand of “A City Employment Market“, and then makes a deep analysis, brings it into the model, and analyzes the changing trend of the talent demand data that affected by various social levels as well. Focusing on the problem in question 3, we infer the urban characteristics of A city by predicting the trend of talent demand in A city based on Grey Model according to the conclusion of question two, to make a comparative analysis with the actual data of some cities in China, then infer the administrative categories, possible geographical region, economic status and high-tech Team B85809 industry development, finally analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the development structure of A city as a whole. In response to the new career preferences of college students that mentioned in question 4, such as taking civil service examinations, starting their own enterprises, working in different places, studying abroad and the like, we assume the trend and number of this type of college students in city A according to the city model from question 3, after putting the data trends into the Grey Model which mentioned in question 1, we can get the prediction model of college students on these items, based on these above, we can get the the quantitative prediction data by analyzing this phenomenon. After that, we can find the trend of College Students' new career preferences, and the types and quantities for talent demand in the city's development planning. Focus on the structure of development of this city, as well as implementing the new development concept of the city in the era of informationize and intelligentialize, putting forward the corresponding strategies of retaining and introducing talents, in order to further plan the development, economic construction, scientific and technological innovation of A city. According to the following question 5 and relevant conclusions drawn from the above four questions, we can get a specific talent demand prediction model of A city. According to the theoretical data which derived from the prediction model, we adjust the training plan of computer software professionals, and accordingly, the corresponding adjustment measures will be put forward in the aspects of cultivation and personalization of College students in the course construction, apply-oriented talents as well. On the premise of guaranteeing the stability of universities and majors’ framework, the training of school talents is more in line with the talents demand in A city and the needs of urban development planning. Key words: Grey Model, talent demand tendency, urban development planning, application-oriented talent training Team B85809 Contents Talent and urban development 1 §1 Restatement of the question 1 Ⅰ、Introduction 1 Ⅱ、Relevant data 1 Ⅲ、Specific questions 1 §2 question analysis 2 Ⅰ、Analysis of specific questions and countermeasures 2 Ⅱ、General analysis of the question and the way to solve it 3 §3 Assumptions of the model 3 §4 Explanation of nouns and symbols 4 Ⅰ、Noun explanation 4 Ⅱ、Symbols 4 §5 Establishment and solution of the model 5 Ⅰ、Analysis and solution of question one 5 Ⅱ、Analysis and solution of question 2 13 Ⅲ、Analysis and solution of question 3 18 Ⅳ、Analysis and solution of question 4.........................................................................18 Ⅴ、Analysis and solution of question 5 20 §6 Error analysis and sensitivity analysis 22 Ⅰ、The error analysis 22 Ⅱ、Model rationality test and analysis 22 §7 Evaluation and generalization of the model 23 Ⅰ、Evaluation of model 23 Reference 24 Team B85809 Page of 24 §1 Restatement of the question Ⅰ、Introduction 1.Background In the past few years, inviting wisdom and attracting talents has been one of the highlights of many cities. Beijing, Shanghai, wuhan, chengdu, xi 'an and shenzhen are actually competing for talent with attractive policies. Talent is the driving force for urban innovation and development, because they have the ability to learn better skills, make better products and master better management methods in a shorter time. Talents are the main driving force of urban innovation communication, because innovation communication is realized through the promotion of new technologies and technologies by high-quality talents. In today's cities, in addition to the local talent market, talent is also recruited through the Internet, campus job fairs and open recruitment activities 2.Significance of research Talents are the core elements of regional development, and outstanding talents are the basis for realizing regional development goals and the driving force for regional development. In order to develop and grow, a region should first attach importance to gathering innovative talents, actively explore new measures, paths and methods of talent construction, constantly strengthen talent construction, and provide strong human resources guarantee for regional development. Ⅱ、Relevant data Attached is the job demand data of one of the largest municipal job markets in A city (named “A city's job market“). Ⅲ、Specific questions Question 1: according to the attached data, according to the job demand, desired occupation and required education background, the talent demand of “A city's employment market“ is modeled and analyzed. Question 2: according to the talent demand of “A City's employment market“ and the employment status of Chinese students, the actual talent demand model data of A City can be established according to the additional data and other necessary methods, and the potential talent demand of a-city in the next three years can be predicted and analyzed. Question 3: try to use the data and conclusions in question 2 to infer the administrative category, possible geographical region, economic status and high-tech industry development of a-city. Question4: in recent years, college students have some new career preferences, such as taking the exam for village officials, taking the exam for civil servants, starting their own businesses, working in other places and studying abroad. These preferences help diversify job opportunities for college graduates. This paper attempts to model and quantify this phenomenon Team B85809 Page of 24 to provide strategies for a-city's urban development and talent introduction. Question 5: please write to the school authorities to find out your Suggestions and opinions on the professional talent training plan you are familiar with, including curriculum construction, application-oriented talent training, individualization of college students, and corresponding quality measures to ensure the university and professional framework according to the current market demand for talents. §2 question analysis Ⅰ、Analysis of specific questions and countermeasures 1.Analysis and countermeasures of question 1 In view of the question of A given data, we work in accordance with the requirements, expectations of the occupation and education background of the three aspects of required for data classification and analysis of corresponding data model is established by MATLAB, according to the dynamic change of randomness, index data of incomplete, uncertainty, so the use of gray theory model to analyze it, hope through the grey system analysis of A city four years of talent demand data analysis, get the city talent demand forecasting model, through the prediction model master “A city“ the job market demand. 2.Analysis and countermeasures of question 2 In order to solve the question of question 2, we apply the data model of question 1. In question one, we have set up “A City“ the job market demand forecasting model of grey system, by the prediction model, as well as our country economy development situation in recent years, the development of science and technology, national employment policy factors such as the talent demand for “A City“ the job market, the influence of the comprehensive analysis to the model, and analyzes the influence of various social levels change to demand data, analysis to predict the future three years A - potential demand of the City. 3.Analysis and countermeasures of question 3 For three of the proposed questions, can according to the data in question 2 and conclusion is obtained by the model to predict the possible existence of urban characteristics of A city, and some cities in our country's actual data, this paper compares and analyzes the categories on the part of A city, and possible geographical area, economic status and high-tech industry development to make inferences. 4.Analysis and countermeasures of question 4 The following are proposed in question 4: College students A new career preferences, such as taking the village official test, take part in the civil service exam, to start my own business, work in the long distance and overseas to study, these students after graduation to is not in the scope of urban demand, we will get the city according to the question of three models assume that such A city college students towards and quantity, and will move towards its data and trend into A gray theory model, are college students on these items to forecast model, on the basis of A quantitative prediction of this phenomenon, after get the data, according to the data of college students' preference towards A new career trends, As well as the Team B85809 Page of 24 type and quantity of talent demand needed by the city in the development planning, the corresponding talent introduction strategy is put forward. 5.Analysis and countermeasures of question 5 By five proposed questions, according to the related conclusion from the above four issues, we can get A more specific city A talented person and the prediction model of the college students A new career preferences, according to the theoretical data obtained from the model and the actual social situation that economic development situation, the development of science and technology demand, the national employment policy factors such as the effects on the actual data, we can be targeted for the school's professional talent training plan in adjustment, in the course construction, applied talents training, college students' individualized aspects put forward the corresponding adjustment measures, On the premise of ensuring that the university and professional framework do not change, the talent training of the university is more in line with the talent demand and urban development planning needs of city A. Ⅱ、General analysis of the question and the way to solve it According to the question setting of this topic and the relevant data provided by it, the group mainly applies the gray theory model to analyze it. In terms of the processing of this topic, it is mainly divided into the following steps: first, relevant material data is sorted out and analyzed, and the gray theory model is substituted for the analysis to establish the basic model. Secondly, by extending the application of the model and analyzing the real social factors, the prediction value based on the grey theory model is obtained. Thirdly, through the analysis and arrangement of the relevant data of the last four years and the prediction of the data of the next three years, the real city model is compared to infer the relevant attributes of A city. Fourth, by the new vocational college students prefer this new variable substitution, and sorting existing gray theory model and add new variables and parameters, the new professional preferences to improve the original model, the influence of improving the gray theory model, and on the basis of the demand for talents and the introduction of strategy to get the corresponding solution; Fifth, from the perspective of university, how to utilize the existing relevant prediction models, talent demand is A quantitative estimation of A city, and targeted to the school personnel training strategy to implement the corresponding improvement, to adapt to the urban demand, and accordingly to meet the needs of the employment of college students, in order to improve the school personnel training strategy feasibility. §3 Assumptions of the model 1. Suppose the background of the topic in question 2 is set as the economic development situation, the demand for scientific and technological development, and the national employment policy of China. 2. In this paper, the vertical axis of all charts represents the number of people, and the horizontal axis represents the year and month, from 1 to 36, respectively, from September 2015 to August 2012 Team B85809 Page of 24 §4 Explanation of nouns and symbols Ⅰ、Noun explanation 1.Grey model If a system has the fuzziness of hierarchical and structural relations, the randomness of dynamic changes, the incompleteness or uncertainty of index data, then these characteristics are called gray. A system with a gray character is called a gray system. The prediction model established for the grey system is called the grey model, or GM model for short, which reveals the process of continuous development and change of things inside the system. That is, through a small amount of incomplete information, the grey differential prediction model is established to describe the development law of things in a fuzzy way for a long time (a branch of forecasting science with relatively perfect theories and methods in the field of fuzzy prediction). 2.Mean variance ratio test Let's say the ratio of mean to variance is ,Among them is the mean variance of the sequence residuals,Is the mean variance of the original sequence.The smaller the size of mean variance ratio, the better the accuracy of the prediction model. 3.Smoothness test Through the formula of ,(n=1,2,3,...,m-1)conduct smoothness test,while n>3,p<0.5, satisfies the smoothness condition. 4.Exponential law test Through the formula of ,(n=2,3,...,m)Perform exponential rule tests,while n>3,,is exponential. Ⅱ、Symbols Team B85809 Page of 24 serial number symbol Symbols 1 β Mean variance ratio 2 S1 Mean variance of the original sequence 3 S2 Mean variance of sequence residuals 4 p(n) Smoothness test parameters 5 q(n) Exponential law tests parameters 6 X A sequence of known data §5 Establishment and solution of the model Ⅰ、Analysis and solution of question one 1.Analysis of the question For A given data, the analysis judgment concluded that we need to use statistics to complete A known about the job requirements and expectations of the occupation and education background required for these three aspects of data model, enables it to achieve realistic data, so we build corresponding data model by MATLAB, the dynamic changes of randomness, according to the data of incomplete, uncertainty index data, so the use of gray theory model to analyze it, expect the city talent demand forecasting is obtained by grey system analysis model, master “A city“ the job market demand 2. The solution of the problem 2.1 Model preparation (1)Data preprocessing: First numerical pretreatment, due to the materials given in the data for each position according to the statistics in the talent supply and demand according to the classification of degree required talents, therefore, for the convenience of longitudinal data analysis based on time axis, the original data to carry on the corresponding processing, for each post, from 2015.9 2018.8 to the timeline for the benchmark data table statistics, data statistics, there are the actual supply, according to the classification of degree required talents demand, the total demand, three aspects of data respectively corresponding to the topic of work requirements, the required education background, job expectations, After preprocessing the data, the grey theoretical model was selected for analysis based on the data characteristics and our question-solving ideas, and the grey theoretical model was established by MATLAB according to the position.. (2)Data analysis: According to the data subject material, and the data using MATLAB to the grey theory model, according to the job requirements, the required education background, job expectations three aspects to analyze the data and will be subject to jobs, according to each position in the timeline of the order of the overall data analysis, nested gray theory model, the theory of grey mathematical model is set Team B85809 Page of 24 up for each position, according to the variance ratio test, the smoothness inspection, exponential rule, the rationality of the data from model test. 2.2 Modeling (1) According to the material data, the grey theory model is established. (2)According to variance ratio test, smoothness test and exponential law test, the rationality of the obtained data model was tested. Among them: Let's say the mean variance ratio is , Among themis the mean variance of the sequence residuals,is the mean variance of the original sequence.The smaller the mean variance ratiois,the better the accuracy of the prediction model. Through the formula,(n=1,2,3,...,m-1),to test the smoothness,while n>3,p<0.5, satisfies the smoothness condition. Through the formula,(n=2,3,...,m),perform exponential rule test,while n>3,,Exponential law. Finally, we have a grey theoretical model with good fit is obtained. For reasons of length, the visual processing of the model established by arbitrarily selecting several occupations is as follows: 【mark】 (The red line——The actual value) (The blue line——The predictive value) Team B85809 Page of 24 Team B85809 Page of 24 Team B85809 Page of 24 Team B85809 Page of 24                    Team B85809 Page of 24 According to the variance ratio test, smoothness test and exponential rule test mentioned above, the model data reflected in the above chart can be sorted out to obtain: (For reasons of length, only examples are given. Other posts and positions are handled in the same way) Eg. Technical work ①P(n)as the following table 0.9792 0.3737 0.2375 0.1703 1.1746 0.4501 0.1233 0.1307 0.0753 0.0700 0.0792 0.0713 0.0785 0.0543 0.0437 0.0063 0.2112 0.0790 0.0261 0.0406 0.0280 0.0119 0.0725 0.0403 0.0257 0.0238 0.0169 0.0132 0.0551 0.1395 0.0278 0.0447 0.0410 0.0293 0.0326 0 According to the smoothness rule,while n>3,P(n) data in the table are basically less than 0.5(exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error),so the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition. ②q(n)as the following table 1.4938 1.9988 2.3134 2.6356 1.6700 1.5998 1.0180 1.1358 1.3408 1.3551 1.1313 1.1775 1.0093 1.3658 1.6289 10.9749 1.6725 1.2689 2.0725 1.3111 1.8466 4.2789 1.2992 1.1867 1.8110 1.9267 2.6809 3.3992 1.1856 1.6920 1.3688 1.1629 1.1160 1.2002 1.0598 1 Rule by exponential rule,whiel n>3,q(n) data in the table are basically within the interval [1,1.5](exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error),the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition. ③By A = inv (b. '* B) * B * YN.' can get A = 0.0106, so the model can be used for speculation or for the medium and long term forecast. In other words, the obtained model is X(k+1)=13175.9674exp(0.010601k)-13079.9674 That is the Technical work grey theoretical model According to the solution results of this post grey theory model, the general solution of the model can be obtained as close all;clear all;clc y=xlsread('D:\1\zhiye\Technical work.xlsx') w=GM1_1(y(:,13)') i=1 j=1 k=38 a=w(1) b=w(2) Team B85809 Page of 24 c=w(3) y2=[] Y3=[] XY=[] while(i3,p<0.5, then meets the smoothness condition. Through the formula,(n=2,3,...,m)o test the exponential law,When n>3,,theconforms to the exponential law. Eg. Technical work ①The values of P (n) are shown in the table below 0.9792 0.3737 0.2375 0.1703 1.1746 0.4501 0.1233 0.1307 0.0753 0.0700 0.0792 0.0713 0.0785 0.0543 0.0437 0.0063 0.2112 0.0790 0.0261 0.0406 0.0280 0.0119 0.0725 0.0403 0.0257 0.0238 0.0169 0.0132 0.0551 0.1395 0.0278 0.0447 0.0410 0.0293 0.0326 0 According to the smoothness judgment rule, when  n>3,P (n) exists as the data in the table is basically less than 0.5 Team B85809 Page of 24 (Exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error),so the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition。 ②The values of q (n) are shown in the table below 1.4938 1.9988 2.3134 2.6356 1.6700 1.5998 1.0180 1.1358 1.3408 1.3551 1.1313 1.1775 1.0093 1.3658 1.6289 10.9749 1.6725 1.2689 2.0725 1.3111 1.8466 4.2789 1.2992 1.1867 1.8110 1.9267 2.6809 3.3992 1.1856 1.6920 1.3688 1.1629 1.1160 1.2002 1.0598 1 So the exponential rule says when n>3,q(n)The data in the table are basically within the interval [1,1.5](Exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error),the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition。 ③ByA=inv(B.'*B)*B.'*YN.' availableA=-0.0106,therefore, this model can be used for medium - and long-term speculation or prediction。 That is, the established model accords with the rationality test。 §7 Evaluation and generalization of the model Ⅰ、Evaluation of model 1. Advantages (1)In line with the actual urban talent demand model, it is able to predict and analyze for a certain period of time。 (2)The model construction is simple and easy to understand。 (3)The visualization effect is good, and the data can be observed and predicted more intuitively。 2. Disadvantages (1)Models are rigid and difficult to add other influencing data. (2)The model data processing is not detailed enough to predict the data trend in more detailed time, so it can only be predicted and analyzed in a large time dimension。 Team B85809 Page of 24 Reference [1]Li Yanan. Research on countermeasures of Tianjin professional and technical talents based on talent demand forecast. Tianjin university,2015.12.4

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