5. source & structure来源Source
国际储蓄Int’l savings
Income available - Consumption
结构Structure
Int’l banks credit
Lending or finance from government/Int’l financial organization
Investment from firms(MNC)
Others5
6. Sources and structureSee table 5-1of textbook for the structure.
See table 5-2 textbook for sources.6
7. Channels官方渠道Official channels
私人渠道Private channels
FDI
Portfolio investment
Bank credit & others
See table 5-3 for the size of capital flow.7
8. 国际投机资本Speculative fundsDefinition
没有固定的投资领域、期限较短(一般在1年以下)、以追逐高额短期利润为目的而在各市场之间移动的短期资本。
特点
Portfolio rather than FDI
Between securities market, FX market, M/M, Derivatives market
Perform high risk transactions
Arbitrage8
9. Speculative funds: some remarksMost SF are channeled to emerging market
The structure has been changed a lot
Portfolio investment goes up
FDI & other form’s flow decline
Speculators tend to be institutional rather than individual
Major objective is arbitrage in FX market and M/M9
10. Speculative funds: the sizeAccording to IMF
US$ 7,200 billion
20% of of global GDP
daily transaction volume is about US$ 1,200 billion, 100 times more than physical goods
deeply engaged into margin trading
high leveraged funding10
11. Speculative funds: the sizeAccording to BIS
see table 5-4 for daily FX transactions volume in emerging market.
See table 5-5 for contract volume of derivatives trading.11
12. Speculative funds: the sizeCross board capital flow observed
up to 1 trillion from 440 billion of 1990
capitalization of foreign bonds and equities to GDP in major industrialized countries are more than 100%
capitalization of foreign bonds and equities in US are more than US$10 trillion
the total capital available in major industrialized countries are more than US$ 52 trillion12
13. Speculative funds: the sizeThe total assets to GDP of 300 largest institutional investors in US goes up to 110% (US$7,200billion) in 1993 from 30% (US$535billion) in 1975
The assets managed by insurance funds, pension funds and mutual funds in 5 major industrialized countries up to US$ 13 trillion in 1993 (See table 5-6 for the detail)
13
14. Speculative funds: the sizeThe capitalization of global equity market excess to US$14 trillion in 1993
The outstanding balance of public debt in 7 major industrialized countries is US$ 9 trillion
The assets managed by institutional investor in 5 major industrialized countries have increased 400% and its ratio to GDP doubled from 1980s14
15. Speculative funds: the motive for movement全球经济发展不平衡,资金供求失衡,获利机会不均等
发展中国家设法结束金融抑制,进行了金融深化
金融市场发展非常迅速,出现政策优惠以及超额盈利机会
发达国家广泛的金融自由化,为资本流动创造了条件
网络以及通讯技术的发展,使资本低成本、迅速转移成为现实15
16. Speculative funds: to where and whyMost SF are channeled to emerging market, id. Asia and Latin America
Cause:
Market integration and financial globalization
High growth rate and interest rate
Weak control
Rapid development of capital market16
17. 投机资本与货币冲击Speculative funds and financial attackThe case of XX17
25. ICF: Some Special Features资本输出入速度与规模迅速增加
发达国家同时输出资本和输入资本
发展中国家在输入资本的同时,也开始输出资本
资本往来中的直接投资大大增加
国际组织成为资金集散的主要途径
国际资本流动更多地采用证券化形式
国际投机资本规模日益庞大,对国际金融市场和国际金融体系的稳健运行造成了较大的冲击25
26. 5.2:International Capital Flow: Economic EffectEconomic benefits
Risks & shortcomings26
27. Economic Benefit(1)May helpful to the capital formation of less developed countries
资本的供给取决于储蓄能力和储蓄愿望,资本的需求取决于投资的刺激。
据世界银行统计,1995年,发展中国家获得了总额为2313亿美元的外部资金;其中,642亿美元得自传统的官方开发贷款,而得自国际金融市场的私人资本则高达1671亿美元。
不发达国家引进外资的形式包括外国企业直接投资、国际借款(官方与非官方)以及赠与,其中以外国直接投资为主。27
28. Economic Benefit(2)May helpful to promote the international trade development
受资国:对外贸易的基础与能力扩大,直接投资环境得到改善。
投资国:带动了商品输出,接近最终消费者,提高了产品的竞争能力
对外直接投资的部门对国际贸易的商品结构起着优化作用
有利于贸易方式的多样化
国际资本流动推动了战后贸易的自由化
出口信贷直接推动了国际贸易的扩大28
29. Economic Benefit(3)Helpful to stimulate the development of international financial market
ICF accelerate the process of economic and financial integration and globalization
Have greatly increased the liquidity of international financial market
Cross board speculation tends to minimize the price movement of financial market to some extent
ICF may be helpful to solve the BOP problem29
30. Risks & shortcomings(1)FX risks: possibility of loss by individual or institutions due to unexpected FX rate change
transaction risk: claims & debts before and after settlement
settlement risk: claims & debts during settlement
accounting risk: reporting items of statement
economic risk: future revenue or earnings items
sovereign risk: all items could be affected30
31. Risks & shortcomings(2)FX risk may deteriorate the trade conditions at macro-level
FX risk may cause problems to enterprises at micro-level
31
33. Risks & shortcomings(4)Interest risk
cause problems to cross board bank credit business
to borrower
to lender
cause problems to international bonds flotation
to international bond issuer
to international bond investor33
34. Risks & shortcomings(5)Influence to banking system of recipient country
to increase the asset size of banks
some anomalies
domestic money supply
to alter the structure of bank’s balance sheet
net inflow period
offset operation by central bank
increase bank’s available funds
offset operation methods34
35. Risks & shortcomingsInfluence to securities market of recipient county
FDI
Portfolio investment
decrease the market efficiency
increase the correlation's between domestic and foreign market
increase the market volatility35
36. Risks & shortcomingsToo many short term capital withdrawal may cause serious problems to recipient county
See pp154.36
37. 1.谋求利差好处
2.没有汇价风险外资大量流入XX国1.房地产供 过于求
2.房地产价格飙升
3.股票价格狂涨1.房地产业泡沫发展
2.股市大涨1. 股市后继乏力
2.房地产业资金周转不灵
银行资金周转不灵存款人挤提!1.大量进入XX国房地产业
2.大量进入XX国资本市场1.连续13年汇率稳定在$1兑24-26泰铢
2.1992年起开放资本项目经济起飞时:
1.资金短缺;2.通货膨胀Risks & shortcomings of ICF:the case of Thailand1.央行监管不力
2.外资没能促进XX国产业结构的调整
3.只有房地产业能忍受高利率长期利
率高企37